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PCA CASE No. 2021-26

PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION

BETWEEN:

WINDSTREAM ENERGY LLC

Claimant

- vs -

THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA

Respondent

TRANSCRIPT OF ARBITRATION PROCEEDINGS

Held at the offices of Arbitration Place

333 Bay Street, Suite 900, Toronto, Ontario

on Thursday, February 8, 2024, at 9:01 a.m.

VOLUME 4

FURTHER REVISED TRANSCRIPT

CONDENSED TRANSCRIPT WITH INDEX

TRIBUNAL:

Wendy Miles KC (Presiding Arbitrator)

Prof. John Gotanda

Rt. Hon. Beverley McLachlin

PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION REGISTRY

José Luis Aragón Cardiel

Stefan Schäferling

Helen Griffin

COURT REPORTER:

Lisa Lamberti

Arbitration Place © 2024

900-333 Bay Street Toronto, ON M5H 2R2

[Page 1174]

APPEARANCES FOR CLAIMANT

John Terry, Counsel

Emily Sherkey, Counsel

Alexandra Shelley, Counsel

Julie Lowenstein, Counsel

Natasha Williams, Counsel

Shoshana Israel, Clerk

Nicole Wannop, Clerk

Torys LLP

Party Representative

David Mars

Fact Witnesses

Nancy Baines

Michael Killeavy

Expert Witnesses

Edward Tobis

Chris Milburn

Pierre-Antoine Tetard

[Page 1175]

APPEARANCES FOR RESPONDENT

Rodney Neufeld, Senior Counsel

Heather Squires, Senior Counsel and

Deputy Director

E. Alexandra Dosman, Counsel

Yu Cai Tian, Counsel

Kayla McMullen, Paralegal

Darian Bakelaar, Paralegal

Christine Ayoub, Paralegal

Global Affairs Canada, Trade Law Bureau

Party Representative

Rahim Punjani, Counsel

Ministry of the Attorney General, Government of

Ontario

Expert Witness

Dr. Jérôme Guillet

Fact Witnesses

Andrew Teliszewsky

Michael Lyle

Trial Graphic Expert

Ryan Knecht

Core Legal Concepts

[Page 1176]

INDEX

PAGE
AFFIRMED PREVIOUSLY: DR. JÉRÔME GUILLET 1177
CROSS-EXAMINATION BY MR. TERRY (Cont'd) 1177
RE-EXAMINATION BY MS. SQUIRES 1255

[Page 1177]

1 Toronto, Ontario

2 --- Upon resuming on Thursday, February 8, 2024

3 at 9:01 a.m.

4 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

5 Good morning. Good morning, Dr. Guillet. How are

6 you?

7 DR. GUILLET: Good morning.

8 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

9 Welcome back. Hopefully it won't be long.

10 Unless there is any

11 housekeeping, Mr. Terry, we will crack on.

12 AFFIRMED PREVIOUSLY: DR. JÉRÔME GUILLET

13 CROSS-EXAMINATION BY MR. TERRY (Cont'd):

14 Q. Thanks very much.

15 Good morning, Dr. Guillet.

16 A. Good morning.

17 Q. I would like to start on

18 the same topic that we were discussing when we

19 finished last night. And I'd like to look at,

20 again, the evidence that you provided to the first

21 Windstream Tribunal. I have got a transcript

22 reference I would like to take you to and I will

23 have it brought up on the screen.

24 I apologize. I don't have a

25 hard copy of this.

[Page 1178]

1 So if we could look --

2 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: Is

3 that in your brief?

4 MR. TERRY: It's not in the

5 brief. I have got an exhibit reference.

6 Exhibit 2464. And we will bring it up on the

7 screen and just perhaps if -- we will go slowly

8 through it, just to make sure you are able to take

9 notes on it.

10 If I can have it brought up to

11 the highlighted reference, please.

12 And you recall, Dr. Guillet,

13 when you were cross-examined in the -- and also

14 made your presentation, in the Windstream I

15 Tribunal hearing?

16 A. Yes.

17 Q. And this is during your

18 presentation. You're talking about what you mean

19 by "fully permitted". Again, in the -- the stage

20 is early stage, late stage.

21 Fully permitted means that you

22 have all of these four things. Unappealable, and

23 unappealable is quite important. It means there's

24 nothing that can take any of these permits away

25 from you. And we'll get back to this in a second.

[Page 1179]

1 And then, if we go a little

2 further down the page in your discussion here.

3 And you're speaking in the context of Windstream.

4 You mentioned, you say:

5 "As mentioned, fully

6 permitted is actually

7 having the permits at

8 hand. It is not having

9 good visibility and how

10 you're going to get them;

11 it's actually having them

12 in your hand."[as read]

13 You see that?

14 A. Yes.

15 Q. And that's what you

16 testified at the Tribunal last time; right?

17 A. I trust the transcript.

18 It's consistent with what I have been saying, so,

19 yes.

20 Q. And what you said

21 yesterday -- again, I am going from yesterday's

22 transcript -- is you said that fully permitted,

23 it's a formal status but you can be close enough

24 that the transactions would be considered late

25 stage.

[Page 1180]

1 And then later on:

2 "It's professional

3 judgment that they are

4 close enough to be

5 considered late

6 stage."[as read]

7 On the Dudgeon transaction,

8 you said you couldn't recall exactly the missing

9 piece but it was close enough to being fully

10 permitted.

11 An so you said:

12 "The professional

13 judgment is what's the

14 risk to get there. Fully

15 permitted means close

16 enough to it."[as read]

17 So and I just want to

18 approach -- I appreciate I asked you this question

19 yesterday but with this different information.

20 In the first hearing, you are

21 saying you have to have the permits at hand. It's

22 not having -- it's not enough having good

23 visibility and how you're going to get them. It's

24 actually having them in your hand.

25 In this proceeding, you say if

[Page 1181]

1 it's close enough to being fully permitted, you

2 are going to exercise your professional judgment

3 and you are going to say that they are late stage

4 and they fulfil the fully permitted requirements.

5 And my question is just a

6 simple one.

7 Do you recognize you're

8 applying a different approach in terms of what you

9 told the Tribunal?

10 And I am not looking at what

11 was in your head or what you were thinking, but

12 what you told the Tribunal in Windstream I versus

13 what you're telling us in this Tribunal now.

14 A. Well, it's not exactly

15 the same question I am answering, so.

16 Fully permitted is a concept

17 that, if you want to be formally fully permitted,

18 indeed, you have to have all the permits

19 unappealable. And, in order to reach financial

20 close, you have to be fully permitted.

21 And this is a stage where, in

22 principle, what's the word, "cliques". I don't

23 know the word in English. You know, safety. You

24 can't move a safety.

25 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: It's

[Page 1182]

1 frozen or it's done?

2 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

3 Locked.

4 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: It's

5 locked.

6 DR. GUILLET: You are locked

7 and you can't go beyond or below that. You have

8 reached a threshold that's valuable and that

9 allows you to get to financial close.

10 When you are close to that,

11 you don't have that. It doesn't mean that it's

12 valueless and there can be an argument again as to

13 the fraction of the value.

14 So it's not going to be

15 100 percent of the value. It's going to be some

16 set of the fraction. And, if you are close

17 enough, the fraction can be high enough.

18 So whether it's 60, 80, 90,

19 95 percent is open for interpretation.

20 And, in some cases, it falls

21 back to zero. The risk is, when you are below

22 fully threshold, you have a risk you could fall

23 back to zero. The risk does exist. It has

24 happened in some projects. So the value is not

25 100 percent.

[Page 1183]

1 But, in some cases, it's close

2 enough and, if it's a matter of process or time,

3 then you're fully -- not fully permitted but you

4 can get comfortable that you will get there.

5 So financial close will not

6 happen until you're actually fully permitted but

7 the value of the project is largely there.

8 So it's a nuance and there is

9 something that needs to be black and white for

10 certain purposes. It's not black and white in

11 terms of valuation. Because, again, it's a

12 continuum so you have a step at that moment in the

13 valuation.

14 Whether the step is very large

15 or smaller, is a question of how important that

16 missing piece and how risky that missing piece is.

17 Q. I appreciate all that and

18 it's consistent with what you were saying

19 yesterday.

20 A. Good.

21 Q. But my question is not so

22 much about what the approach you are telling us

23 you're applying now, but understanding the

24 difference between that and the approach you

25 applied for the first Tribunal where you said,

[Page 1184]

1 very clearly, you set out very, very clearly --

2 and I don't need to take you back to it. I think

3 you recall it all.

4 That the projects you were

5 putting into late stage transactions were ones

6 that were fully permitted and you defined that as

7 having the four attributes. And, with respect to

8 permits, that included permits under appeal.

9 And, as I have just taken to

10 you, for example, you said that fully permitted

11 means actually having the permits in hand, not

12 enough having good visibility, et cetera.

13 My question isn't so much you

14 explaining why you are applying, you are telling

15 us about your approach now.

16 It's a much more simple

17 question.

18 I mean, do you recognize that

19 you're applying a different approach to

20 distinguish between early and late stage

21 development in this hearing than you were in the

22 previous hearing?

23 A. I don't believe so but, I

24 mean, we can go back again to what I said in the

25 2015 hearing.

[Page 1185]

1 This is about the definition

2 of fully permitted. It's not about the valuation.

3 I would need to check what I said about the

4 valuation.

5 I believe I have been

6 consistent. If you think I haven't, I guess

7 that's for the appreciation of the Tribunal.

8 Q. All right.

9 A. I mean, we have been

10 playing around with some of the concepts that are,

11 again, in a continuum and we are trying to put

12 definitions for steps on a path. Sometimes, these

13 steps are easy to define. Sometimes, they are not

14 so easy to define.

15 So if you want to flag me --

16 and to get back to the example of the project.

17 You are saying site control and formally it

18 doesn't have site control. So does the value go

19 back to zero?

20 So let's have a little bit of

21 judgment there and let's not be -- or if we have

22 the black and white application, then we apply it

23 everywhere. I am not sure that's very favourable

24 to the project.

25 So I am saying the project is

[Page 1186]

1 close to having a site control and a grid

2 connection, from what I understand of the project.

3 So I am giving credit for

4 that. And I am willing to give credit that this

5 has some value which was reflected previously but

6 formally doesn't have site control.

7 Again, it's not a continuum.

8 There's a step, at that moment. You can trip over

9 that step, in some cases, but, but don't make me

10 say things that I haven't said.

11 Maybe things were simpler in

12 2015? I mean, the number of projects that were on

13 the market were much smaller. I mean, there were

14 six projects in eight years or seven years that

15 were presented. And, at that point, I had a good

16 visibility on most of what was happening in the

17 sector today. There is lots of things that I

18 don't see.

19 So I certainly don't claim

20 that my database has the full market. It's as

21 good as it gets but it's only a fraction of the

22 market. Back then, it was -- things were maybe a

23 bit simpler and it was easier to make this

24 distinction. Now you have lots of projects and

25 they are all on that continuum and investors

[Page 1187]

1 exercise their judgment on that.

2 Q. So it sounds like it's

3 fair to say, what you're telling us here today, is

4 you have got -- there's more of a fluid line

5 between early stage and late stage and you have to

6 apply professional judgment as to which, which

7 side you fall on?

8 A. Yeah. But that doesn't

9 mean that 5 percent equals 95 percent.

10 I am saying that 95 percent is

11 close to 100. But if you want me to say that 95

12 is close to 5. So early stage and late stage are

13 still quite far apart.

14 But, yes, there is an element

15 of judgment. It is a continuum and that's why I

16 typically prefer to give ranges rather than firm

17 numbers because there is no firm number for any

18 project. It's a matter of both the project and

19 the context and the participants.

20 So it's very hard to pin a

21 value. The only way you actually pin a value is

22 when two parties agree to do a transaction on the

23 value. There, it crystallizes all these things.

24 And all you can do is try to see if, from many

25 transactions, that all are unique and individual,

[Page 1188]

1 you can see some general consistency.

2 And I believe there is some

3 level of consistency but with a lot of individual

4 variation.

5 Q. Okay.

6 I'd like to take you again now

7 to Table 8 in the first, your first report.

8 The December 2022 report,

9 page 28.

10 And I just want to go through

11 and read out the -- because I am going to take

12 these projects and then look at the valuations in

13 another table. I just want to identify which ones

14 you say don't have permits.

15 First of all, Dudgeon is no,

16 no permit.

17 Then there's Gemini. No

18 permit.

19 EMF?

20 A. No being not having all

21 the permits?

22 Q. Yes, sorry, sir. So we

23 can assume no means not having all permits.

24 A. Yeah, yeah. It doesn't

25 mean it has no permits whatsoever, just to be

[Page 1189]

1 clear.

2 Q. Okay, okay.

3 EMF is under appeal.

4 A. Yeah.

5 Q. So that would mean one or

6 more permits is under appeal.

7 A. Yes.

8 Q. Okay.

9 LEM, also under appeal.

10 A. Yes.

11 Q. Ørsted US assets, no?

12 A. Yeah.

13 Q. Saint-Brieuc, under

14 appeal?

15 A. Yes.

16 Q. Empire Wind, no?

17 A. Yes.

18 Q. Maryland Bay, no.

19 A. Yes.

20 Q. So if I then take that

21 list and if I could go, please, to -- take you,

22 please, to Table 8 in the same -- sorry, my

23 apologies. Table 7 in your second report. Your

24 rejoinder report.

25 And this is the one where you

[Page 1190]

1 set out the valuations for all these projects?

2 A. Which page?

3 Q. This is page 58.

4 A. 58, okay.

5 Q. And perhaps we could

6 use -- this isn't all highlighted here so perhaps,

7 on the screen, we can highlight as we go through

8 to make it easier.

9 But the first project, the

10 Dudgeon project that we mentioned is valued at

11 0.30 million euros per megawatt; correct?

12 A. Correct, approximately.

13 Q. Right, approximately.

14 And then the second project,

15 the Gemini project, is at 0.10 million euros per

16 megawatt?

17 A. Yes.

18 Q. And then, if we go down

19 to the EMF project, that is 0.27 million euros per

20 megawatt?

21 A. Yes.

22 Q. And then the LEM project,

23 a little further down, as we discussed yesterday,

24 that's 0.32 million euros per megawatt?

25 A. Yes.

[Page 1191]

1 Q. And, of course, that's

2 the one that has a contingent interest that you

3 didn't include in that valuation?

4 A. Indeed.

5 Q. And then, if we go to

6 Ørsted, the next one down. That's 0.23 million

7 euros per megawatt?

8 A. Based on the

9 approximation of allocating 50 percent of the

10 stated transaction value. That's the estimate,

11 yes.

12 Q. Right.

13 And, as we discussed

14 yesterday, that's one where Secretariat, at least,

15 would say the valuation should be higher because

16 it only had 834 megawatts rather than 860

17 megawatts?

18 A. I am not sure that would

19 change the last digit on the valuation but, yes.

20 Q. And then Saint-Brieuc,

21 the valuation for that is greater than 0.5 million

22 euros per megawatt?

23 A. Yes.

24 Q. And then Empire Wind is

25 approximately 1.25 million euros per megawatt?

[Page 1192]

1 A. Yes.

2 Q. And US Wind is

3 approximately 0.50 million euros per megawatt.

4 And I appreciate, sir, that

5 you put those in your outlier category, as you

6 described otherwise.

7 A. Those were the yellow

8 highlights on the table, yes.

9 So not all of those that you

10 have quoted but Saint-Brieuc, Empire Wind and US

11 Wind and NNG which is not on your list.

12 I am not sure if you are using

13 two separate colours for highlight because I can't

14 tell the difference.

15 Q. It was not intentional to

16 use two separate colours. I think that is just

17 the technology --

18 A. No, the previous one that

19 was already there when you started and then you

20 added some colour. I don't know if the colour you

21 added was the same as the one that was already

22 there.

23 The yellow, I can see

24 separately, but not the other colour. I have no

25 idea what colour, if it's yellow or green.

[Page 1193]

1 Q. Oh, I see, yeah. Just a

2 vision thing that --

3 A. I am colour blind. I am

4 colour blind, sorry. I do see that you

5 highlighted them. I cannot see if they are

6 different colours. The yellow, I can see.

7 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

8 And they look orange to you?

9 THE WITNESS: I have no idea

10 what they look like.

11 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

12 That's beautiful.

13 BY MR. TERRY:

14 Q. And we talked yesterday,

15 at one point, you said that, you know, if I

16 want -- if I wanted to, if the Tribunal disagreed

17 with you, you could exclude the non-permitted

18 projects.

19 If I were to exclude those

20 projects and move them into the early stage

21 transaction table and that's, if we could go to --

22 A. I am sorry, but I have to

23 take a statement against that.

24 The fact that they are not

25 fully permitted does not make them early stage.

[Page 1194]

1 Q. Right. But work with me

2 here --

3 A. No, no, no. You can't do

4 that. I mean you have got two ends of something.

5 You are saying, okay, you're not at the end so I

6 am putting it all back to zero. I object to that

7 forcefully.

8 Q. Okay.

9 A. They are --

10 Q. I hear you but I am going

11 to ask you a question. I just would like an

12 answer, please.

13 If we could go to Table 5,

14 which is page 57 of the same report.

15 And you can see we have got

16 the early stage table there. If we move --

17 actually, let's move up, yeah, to the Table 4.

18 If I were going to take these

19 eight transactions -- and I appreciate you don't

20 agree with this.

21 But if I were going to take

22 these eight transactions and move them into the

23 early stage transaction table here so that they

24 would be included in those comparables, it would

25 result in a very substantial increase to the

[Page 1195]

1 average of all those early stage projects?

2 And I am looking,

3 particularly, if we look at the values that we

4 just went through, in virtually all cases, they

5 are substantially more than the values in the

6 early stage transaction table.

7 Do you agree that -- if you

8 were to take -- if you were to put -- again, I

9 appreciate you don't agree with this.

10 But if you were to take those

11 transactions we have identified, include them?

12 A. As a mathematical

13 question, yes.

14 Q. As a mathematical

15 question.

16 A. But, if you do that, the

17 project does not belong in the early development

18 stage. It's even earlier. So these are not

19 comparable to the project because they are not

20 comparable. They are no longer comparable.

21 Q. So, so --

22 A. No, no. But you have to

23 compare things that are comparable. If you want

24 to bring things to torture, the definition of

25 early stage and say the project is also early

[Page 1196]

1 stage, this doesn't make sense anymore.

2 Q. And, listen, I appreciate

3 your help here. I am working, as you know, with

4 your definitions --

5 A. No, you are not. You are

6 torturing my definitions.

7 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN:

8 Well, just answer.

9 THE WITNESS: Well, I am

10 stating that I disagree with what he is doing. I

11 can answer the theoretical question that,

12 mathematically, what he's doing is mathematically

13 correct.

14 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

15 Dr. Guillet, I know you don't agree with the

16 exercise but you need to answer the questions on

17 the basis of the exercise. We understand. Your

18 objections are well registered.

19 DR. GUILLET: Okay.

20 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

21 Do you mind just going back to the slide you had

22 with the one we had the discussion about colour

23 just very briefly. Just hold it there for one

24 minute.

25 MR. TERRY: Okay.

[Page 1197]

1 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

2 Thanks. You can go back to it.

3 BY MR. TERRY:

4 Q. Just before we continue

5 with this table, I'd like to take you -- and this

6 just is in respect to your assertion that we are

7 torturing the definitions you provided.

8 If we look at your first

9 report, your December 2022 report -- and I have

10 already taken you to this. Paragraph 26 of that

11 report.

12 And this is a report -- this

13 is not your Green Giraffe report for the first

14 Tribunal. This is your report for this Tribunal.

15 You say:

16 "Late development stages

17 are projects that are

18 fully permitted, meaning

19 that they benefit from 1,

20 site control; 2, permits

21 that are no longer

22 subject to any potential

23 appeals process; 3, a

24 price regime for the sale

25 of electricity (whether

[Page 1198]

1 under a Feed-In Tariff,

2 power purchase agreement,

3 with a fixed price

4 formula), or a contract

5 for differences, CFD;

6 and, 4, a grid access, as

7 further explained in

8 paragraph 47 and

9 subsequent."[as read]

10 You will agree with me that

11 that is how you defined "fully permitted" in --

12 and made the distinction between late stage and

13 early stage in the report that you provided to

14 this Tribunal.

15 And the words are the same as

16 the ones you used in the previous Tribunal.

17 And, sir, that is the

18 definition you have laid out for the Tribunal.

19 That's the definition you have laid out for us.

20 So, with the greatest of

21 respect, I don't see anything in that definition

22 that gives you -- where you're indicating that you

23 are going to take flexibility in applying nuance

24 in deciding whether something is fully permitted

25 or not.

[Page 1199]

1 You set out the bounds very

2 strictly and very carefully, as you did in the

3 previous Tribunal and as they relied upon.

4 Do you agree with me?

5 A. In this place, it's an

6 introduction to the stages of development. Fully

7 permitted is a fully defined concept.

8 The valuations, I am pretty

9 sure that I put it's at fully permitted or close

10 enough.

11 Q. So let's go back to my

12 question about the -- if we could go back to the

13 early stage development table.

14 And, in this particular table,

15 then, my question was, if you were to take the

16 transactions we just described that are not fully

17 permitted, move them from the late stage to the

18 early stage, and you don't have to -- I understand

19 everything you have said about why that would be

20 inappropriate.

21 That would result -- just

22 applying mathematics. And you have done some

23 averaging here.

24 That would result in the very

25 substantial increase to the 0.06 million euros per

[Page 1200]

1 megawatt average you provide in your chart of

2 averages for early stage development projects?

3 A. I don't know. It's a

4 complex calculation and would need to be done.

5 Q. I am not sure if it's a

6 complex calculation to add eight more numbers with

7 the others to average.

8 And I must admit. We would do

9 it ourselves but, because of the confidential

10 information in all the greater than and lesser

11 thans, we are not sure how we would go about

12 trying to reach an average because of the way that

13 you've put together those valuations.

14 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: Are

15 you asking him what the average would be? Because

16 I haven't heard that question.

17 MR. TERRY: Justice McLachlin,

18 that is just the question I was going to ask

19 about. I was explaining why we couldn't calculate

20 it.

21 THE WITNESS: Well, you could

22 calculate it if you wanted.

23 BY MR. TERRY:

24 Q. What would the average

25 be?

[Page 1201]

1 A. You could calculate it by

2 taking the rounding numbers. When it says below

3 0.10, it's below and close to, so you could

4 certainly do an approximation of the calculation

5 with the rounded numbers, if you want to do the

6 calculation.

7 If you want to ask me to do

8 the calculation, I can do it but then I need to go

9 back to the files and the computer. I am not

10 going to do it in my head right now.

11 Q. Fair enough.

12 Well, you have indicated to us

13 how we can do the calculation because we weren't

14 sure how to deal with those imprecise numbers.

15 And, if we use those rounded numbers, we -- yeah,

16 we will likely, Madam President, need a break at

17 some point to do that. But we could, if the

18 Tribunal would find it of assistance, we could do

19 the calculation and put it to Dr. Guillet?

20 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES: I

21 just did the calculation.

22 So I did the calculation

23 taking out the non-disclosable items in the early

24 stage development which gave .066 for the first

25 chart and then adding back in. I didn't add in

[Page 1202]

1 the 1.33 because -- well, it just felt too much of

2 an aberration, right or wrong.

3 But I didn't add that back in

4 but I added in the other items you have and it

5 gave me .15 which is outside the range of the

6 earlier Tribunal for early stage, .01 to .1. But

7 not that far outside. And late stages, .1 to .5.

8 So it's -- it does move it

9 along but -- and, materially, but not off the

10 charts, materially.

11 Anyway, that was a calculation

12 I did.

13 I don't think this is a game

14 of precision. It clearly isn't. You have made

15 that point. Dr. Guillet's made that point too.

16 The extent to which the

17 earlier Tribunal treated it as a game of precision

18 is an issue you may or may not want to deal with

19 in submission. If you do, you are going to have

20 to deal with what, as a matter of law, we can

21 possibly do about that.

22 But I think the point is

23 taken.

24 If you feel the numbers expand

25 their early stage development hugely beyond 0.15,

[Page 1203]

1 you do those sums in the break and let me know.

2 But that's where I think they come out.

3 MR. TERRY: That's extremely

4 helpful. I -- hats off to your mathematical

5 abilities.

6 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

7 Well, my calculator's maths, but okay.

8 MR. TERRY: The only other

9 calculation we may run is just -- is just looking

10 at the -- if you look at the additional -- the

11 projects you just went through, many of them were

12 later stage falling in the 2015 to 2020 period.

13 So looking at the increase,

14 because Dr. Guillet has charts that show the

15 increase between pre-2015 and 2015 to 2020, may

16 also run a calculation on that during the break

17 that we can put to Mr. Guillet. Sorry,

18 Dr. Guillet.

19 BY MR. TERRY:

20 Q. Dr. Guillet, there's one

21 more -- there's one more project I just want to

22 quickly ask you about, and this shows up in

23 your -- the late stage development chart that's in

24 Table 7.

25 And this is the --

[Page 1204]

1 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN:

2 Which report?

3 MR. TERRY: Sorry, Table 7 of

4 report Number 2.

5 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN:

6 Okay.

7 BY MR. TERRY:

8 Q. And this is the Formosa 1

9 project.

10 And this project is bolded

11 because you didn't include it in your first

12 comparables chart because you weren't aware of it;

13 is that correct?

14 A. I did not have the

15 information, yes.

16 Q. Okay.

17 A. And I did, on the basis

18 of what was provided in the Secretariat rejoinder.

19 Q. Okay.

20 We have included, then,

21 exhibit, which is loose. It's Exhibit C-2150 in

22 the Guillet brief.

23 And, Tribunal members, you

24 should have that as well in your brief.

25 I have also brought it up on

[Page 1205]

1 the screen here.

2 It it's a press release with

3 respect to this Formosa project. And I would like

4 to direct you --

5 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: What

6 tab is that?

7 MR. TERRY: Pardon me?

8 In the brief, it was just put

9 in loosely, I am sorry, because we just got it

10 later in the day yesterday. Right toward the end,

11 it should be.

12 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN:

13 Okay. There. I see it, yes.

14 BY MR. TERRY:

15 Q. And, Dr. Guillet, on the

16 second page, we have highlighted the statement in

17 the press release. The permitting process is

18 described.

19 It says:

20 "The permitting process

21 is on schedule and

22 Formosa 1 signed a power

23 purchase agreement, PPA,

24 with Taipower in

25 December 2017."[as read]

[Page 1206]

1 And I appreciate you don't

2 know very much about this project but we assume,

3 when a press release says the permitting process

4 is on schedule, it doesn't mean the permitting

5 process is completed; is that correct?

6 A. As I think was mentioned

7 in one of the earlier conversations, you have got

8 the permits that you need to get started and then

9 you have permits that you can only obtain along

10 the way. And there are permits you are not

11 allowed to ask for until you reach a certain

12 stage.

13 So that's -- these would not

14 be part of the definition of "fully permitted",

15 for obvious reasons.

16 And the test is, in this case,

17 the press release is about reaching FID and FID is

18 a pretty formal step to investors.

19 And the next sentence says the

20 project will use non-recourse project finance.

21 And that means the banks are comfortable that the

22 permits that are there are all that you need to

23 actually not take undue risk as a lender.

24 So the fact that there is

25 finance means that it is effective fully

[Page 1207]

1 permitted. De facto.

2 So you are actually making my

3 point that it is a continuum. Some are vital and

4 some are impossible to have later. Some are part

5 of the norm -- I mean, technically, the driver's

6 licence of the guy driving the truck bringing

7 equipment is part of the permits, under a wide

8 definition of permits. You can have lapses on

9 things like that. But does that mean that the

10 project is not fully permitted? No.

11 It's the major permits that

12 allow you to start construction and that prevent

13 people -- the permits that are unappealable.

14 And, if you want to nail me

15 down to definition, it's not possible and I am

16 sure you will nail me down in some way.

17 But, basically, there's fully

18 permitted will rely on lawyers to put in their due

19 diligence report, yes, all the permits that are

20 necessary to reach financial close are there.

21 So, formally, at the moment of

22 the transaction on these that you listed, the

23 permits that were necessary to reach financial

24 close or FID were not there.

25 But, in some cases, like the

[Page 1208]

1 French projects, there was one appeal left and

2 there was a known date for the answer. And,

3 basically, this was an on/off switch. If the

4 decision allows the project to go on, then the

5 transaction happens and the project happens.

6 If the appeal is upheld and

7 the project is stopped, then the project is dead.

8 And you know this and you have a deadline for

9 that. So that's why the risk that you take is, is

10 very, is very straightforward.

11 In the case of Gemini, was the

12 same. You had a permit that could only be given

13 after a certain process took place. And,

14 basically, financial close happened right after

15 that but the equity was comfortable to get into

16 the project before that because they understood

17 what the process to get that permit was.

18 The banks didn't take that

19 risk. That was the distinction between equity

20 risk and lender's risk. But equity was willing to

21 take the risk.

22 So fully -- maybe the nuance

23 is that this fully permitted concept is more

24 essential for the lenders than for the investors.

25 For the lenders, there's no

[Page 1209]

1 leeway. They want fully permitted, as you say,

2 the black and white definition.

3 Investors may be willing to

4 take some risk on some of the permits if they see

5 that it's a short delay or that is something that

6 is a process that they understand.

7 Q. Thank you for that.

8 The -- I want to go to your --

9 back to the early stage development table in your

10 second report.

11 And, Dr. Guillet, you have

12 highlighted here certain projects that you

13 describe as a floating wind project.

14 What's a floating wind

15 project?

16 A. These are projects that

17 would be on floating foundations as opposed to

18 foundations that are firmly affixed to the

19 subsurface below the sea; whether steel

20 foundations are like a very big nail that you --

21 or gravity base that are big, heavy structure that

22 lays on the floor of the seabed.

23 So that's fixed bottom. They

24 are a fixed structure hanging on to the floor.

25 Floating is what it says. It

[Page 1210]

1 floats at the surface. There's different types of

2 floating structures.

3 If you want the physics of

4 that, I can give you a few more details but,

5 basically, it is what it says.

6 It's a foundation that's

7 floating on the surface that's not -- it is

8 connected to the ground by cables that keep it in

9 place, mooring cables. But, in principle, it's

10 not relying on the ground to stay in place.

11 Q. Okay. Thanks for that.

12 So you have six floating wind

13 projects in your early development stage

14 transaction, and that amounts to about a

15 quarter -- a little more than a quarter of your 23

16 early stage comparables; correct?

17 A. Yes.

18 Q. If I could turn you and

19 the Tribunal, please, to your December 22nd

20 report, paragraph 66.

21 And here is where you talk

22 about, including floating wind transactions, you

23 say, in the third line:

24 "They are seen as more

25 risky than traditional

[Page 1211]

1 fixed-bottom wind such as

2 the project, as the

3 technology is not yet

4 proven on a large scale

5 and future costs are less

6 well understood."[as

7 read]

8 Do you agree with that?

9 A. I wrote it.

10 Q. And you say:

11 "Their financeability is

12 seen as lower and will

13 require funders with a

14 higher cost of capital,

15 driving down the value of

16 the projects."[as read]

17 I take it you agree with that

18 statement?

19 A. Yes, I wrote that.

20 Q. And then you say:

21 "The value of these

22 projects can thus be seen

23 as a lower bound for the

24 value of development

25 projects at a similar

[Page 1212]

1 stage."[as read]

2 And that's what you stated;

3 correct?

4 A. I did.

5 Q. And I see that, also,

6 that five of these, of the six transactions here

7 are listed as non-disclosed in terms of the

8 transaction value; correct?

9 A. Yes.

10 Q. And the transaction

11 amounts consistent with what you said are --

12 million euros per megawatt are very low.

13 The first two are less than

14 0.02 million megawatts per euro. The next two are

15 less than 0.05 million megawatts per euro.

16 There's one greater than 0.05 and there's one that

17 is 0.01.

18 A. Yes.

19 Q. And, if you were to

20 remove floating wind turbines from the early stage

21 development table, the average value of the

22 comparables in that table would increase; is that

23 fair?

24 A. As an artificial

25 calculation, yes.

[Page 1213]

1 Q. All right.

2 And do you know how many -- if

3 you compare the number of megawatts operating in

4 offshore wind versus using, as you described,

5 fixed either -- fixed foundations that are

6 attached to the seabed or lake bed in some way, to

7 the number that are actually operational that are

8 floating turbines, what would the numbers be?

9 A. There is about 100 times

10 more fixed-bottom than floating currently

11 operating. It's 277 megawatts at the end of 2023

12 for floating and it's, I can't remember the

13 number, for the end of '23 for fixed but it's

14 27 -- it's in the 20s gigawatts. So, yeah,

15 hundred times more.

16 Yes, floating is unproven.

17 It's still more expensive as a construction. So

18 the projects -- the value of the projects as

19 construction project is essentially unknown at

20 this stage.

21 But, as a development, the

22 development risks are not dissimilar and the

23 expectation is that, eventually, they will become

24 financeable.

25 In terms of the development

[Page 1214]

1 risk, they are not that dissimilar. But, given

2 that we don't really know what they will be worth

3 in the future or if they will be worth anything,

4 that's why I said they tend to be the lower bound.

5 But there's a number of

6 jurisdictions where the only thing you can do is

7 floating because their water depth, the water, the

8 seabed goes very deep, very quickly. And you

9 can't do fixed bottom or you need to -- you need

10 to go further away to do -- because people

11 complain about the turbines being too close to

12 shore and, in some places, it's the way to go.

13 So people want to make it

14 happen but it hasn't happened yet. So these

15 projects tend to be more early stage, although

16 this is changing. You had some major allocation

17 of projects to floating wind in Scotland and other

18 allocations of leases in various places.

19 But, again, in terms of the

20 development risk, it's not that different from

21 fixed bottom in terms of what you need to do. And

22 the expectation is that the value of these

23 projects -- and that's what we have seen from

24 early stage. There are no -- very few late-stage

25 floating projects. But, from the early stage, the

[Page 1215]

1 values that investors have been willing to put

2 into these project is not that different as for

3 fixed bottoms at the same stage of development.

4 Q. Okay.

5 I have a few questions just to

6 fully understand your qualifications and

7 credentials, education, et cetera.

8 A. Okay.

9 Q. And I know you have told

10 us you're an economist and you have a PhD as an

11 economist?

12 A. I have never claimed to

13 be an economist.

14 Q. Okay.

15 A. I have a PhD label in

16 economics, yes. But my PhD was on the

17 independence of Ukraine.

18 Q. That's always a topical

19 issue.

20 A. But that's how I got into

21 energy because I got to know a lot about the

22 Russian, the former Soviet Union gas pipelines and

23 then I got into financing gas pipelines in Soviet

24 Union and elsewhere and then I got financing power

25 and then renewables.

[Page 1216]

1 So, yes, Ukraine brings you to

2 offshore wind.

3 Q. What were your degrees?

4 What is your PhD in and what others,

5 undergraduate --

6 A. I first did an

7 engineering school, which is called Polytechnique

8 in Paris. And then I did a PhD at EHESS, École

9 des hautes études en sciences sociales.

10 And my PhD, technically, is

11 labelled as economics because the École

12 Polytechnique is an engineering school and they

13 don't fund PhD stipends for soft sciences so I was

14 relabelled as economics which is hard enough to be

15 funded by engineering school, so I got a stipend

16 for my PhD. But, today, we would probably call it

17 geopolitics or international relations.

18 Q. Okay, international

19 relations.

20 And you mentioned engineering

21 school but you told me, and I assume it's still

22 correct, you told me in the last proceeding you

23 are not an engineer?

24 A. Define engineer.

25 If you want to say what I am

[Page 1217]

1 not, you need to tell me what that is.

2 Q. Well, perhaps --

3 A. Since you are going to

4 use my words against me, I would rather know

5 what --

6 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

7 Are you an engineer, Dr. Guillet?

8 THE WITNESS: I don't know.

9 Is that a formal qualification? I did an

10 engineering school; is that enough to be an

11 engineer?

12 BY MR. TERRY:

13 Q. Do you know what's

14 required to be an engineer? Do you know about the

15 standards and the accountability that you have to

16 abide by if you're a Professional Engineer?

17 A. I don't know that we have

18 these standards in France, so. Technically, in

19 France, I am an engineer, yes. I haven't

20 exercised as an engineer but I have a diploma of

21 an engineer.

22 Q. If I could bring up,

23 please, take you to Tab 7 of your cross brief.

24 And this is, again, from the transcript where you

25 testified previously.

[Page 1218]

1 And at page 184. You -- I am

2 asking you there:

3 "You're not putting

4 yourself forward here as

5 an engineer; correct?"[as

6 read]

7 And this is what I was asking

8 about your training and qualifications.

9 And you say:

10 "Correct."[as read]

11 And, unless you have taken

12 engineering courses since that first proceeding, I

13 take it that's still a correct statement?

14 MS. SQUIRES: I am sorry. I

15 just want to object here for just one second

16 because I don't think you are reading the

17 transcript properly.

18 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

19 You can stop, Ms. Squires.

20 The question that was put to

21 you was whether or not you were representing

22 appearing as an expert engineer in the earlier

23 proceedings.

24 That is a separate question as

25 to whether or not he is an engineer. He could

[Page 1219]

1 have three hats and might be providing expert

2 evidence with one.

3 I think the valid question, I

4 think it's as valid as are you putting yourself

5 forward as an engineer in these proceedings.

6 THE WITNESS: I don't believe

7 I am. I don't think I have claimed to be.

8 MR. TERRY: Okay.

9 DR. GUILLET: I don't think I

10 have made any comments that would require me to be

11 a Professional Engineer.

12 So, but if you --

13 BY MR. TERRY:

14 Q. That's fine and totally

15 fair.

16 And then the next question

17 highlighted I said, and similar:

18 "And you are not putting

19 yourself forward here as

20 a construction

21 expert?"[as read]

22 In this proceeding and you --

23 A. Well, what do you mean by

24 construction expert. I probably know more than

25 anyone in this room on, actually, what it takes to

[Page 1220]

1 build an offshore wind farm? Am I the guy that

2 orders the cranes and --

3 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

4 Dr. Guillet, just let me stop.

5 There is a separation between

6 what you can do, what you have done, what you're

7 qualified to do and what you are representing

8 yourself as opining on to us in these proceedings.

9 We have volumes of engineering

10 expert reports. We have the Wood report. We have

11 the Two Dogs report. We have a number of expert

12 engineering reports.

13 So the question put to you is

14 you are not putting yourself forward as an expert

15 in construction engineering. That's not what your

16 report deals with?

17 THE WITNESS: If that's the

18 question, I am happy to stipulate to that.

19 However, since the question

20 about is a valuation of complex engineering

21 projects, I feel entitled to say that I do

22 understand a little bit about the underlying

23 issues. I don't claim to be an engineer. I don't

24 claim to provide expertise in that topic. But I

25 do claim to understand some of what's going on and

[Page 1221]

1 to be able to speak about it, especially as it

2 pertains to the valuation of the projects.

3 BY MR. TERRY:

4 Q. And, again, to go a

5 little further down the transcript. Sorry, if you

6 go back up to the top of page 187.

7 And this is in the context of

8 my asking you about who the technical experts were

9 that were testifying for Windstream in that

10 proceeding and whether you're aware of them and

11 what your views were of them.

12 And you said here:

13 "If you want me to attest

14 to Sgurr is one of the

15 top, top technical

16 experts in the field, I'm

17 happy to stipulate to

18 that."[as read]

19 And Sgurr, of course, now goes

20 under the name Wood; you're aware of that?

21 A. Of course.

22 Q. Right.

23 And Wood was the -- or is the

24 technical expert firm that provided for -- that

25 continued to provide for the second Windstream

[Page 1222]

1 proceeding, the expert reports on the technical

2 feasibility of study; you're aware of that?

3 A. Yeah. And I commented on

4 that yesterday already.

5 I will stipulate again that

6 Sgurr/Wood is top technical expert in the field.

7 And I will point out, again, that their reply will

8 depend on the question that you ask them, and

9 whether it is possible to build a project is not

10 the same thing as is it highly certain that it

11 will be built within that budget and that time

12 frame.

13 These are two different

14 questions. They are qualified to answer both.

15 Their reports that you've provided are about the

16 question whether it's possible to build the

17 project and I certainly believe them when they say

18 that it is possible.

19 But I am applying a different

20 standard which is the standard that lenders and a

21 number of investors would apply which is it highly

22 likely that it can be built within that budget and

23 that timetable. And that is a different question.

24 They can answer it, but they

25 have not answered it in the reports that you

[Page 1223]

1 provided.

2 Q. All right.

3 And then continuing with your

4 qualifications, you were not -- and I am using

5 these words as they're understood in business and

6 legal terms.

7 You're not a business valuer.

8 You wouldn't describe yourself as a business

9 valuer; that's not your area of expertise.

10 A. I am sorry but I don't

11 understand what is defining business. I mean

12 you're mixing up terms that are used in common in

13 business, and terms that are legally fraught with

14 meaning and things that I certainly don't get.

15 So don't make me say things --

16 if you want me to say something that has legal

17 meaning, please describe that legal meaning

18 before. Otherwise, you are going to use my words

19 against me.

20 I am doing business valuation.

21 I am -- that's my job. I value projects. I value

22 businesses and projects.

23 But is it if there's a

24 specific definition of business valuation for the

25 legal purposes, I don't know and I can't answer

[Page 1224]

1 that question.

2 So be more precise about your

3 definitions since you want to use words against

4 me, then define the words.

5 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

6 He is really not trying to trick you. It was an

7 imprecise phrase and I think he will rephrase it

8 but don't --

9 THE WITNESS: He has been

10 using it every single modification in one phrase

11 compared to the other in different parts of my

12 report to say that I am not saying thing so --

13 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

14 The way your evidence --

15 THE WITNESS: I am not taking

16 any words.

17 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

18 The way your evidence is of most use and, indeed,

19 any use to us, as a Tribunal, is if you answer the

20 questions.

21 If you don't understand a

22 question, say I don't understand the question.

23 But, if you get into defensive argument with

24 counsel, it doesn't help us.

25 So we need you to help -- we

[Page 1225]

1 need your evidence to help us.

2 So, Mr. Terry, business

3 valuation is a curious way to put it. But perhaps

4 you meant qualified valuer. I don't know. But

5 maybe re-put your question.

6 BY MR. TERRY:

7 Q. Yeah, and I appreciate

8 that.

9 First of all, are you

10 accredited, in any way, as a business valuator by

11 any association?

12 A. No.

13 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

14 You don't mean business in there; do you? Valuer.

15 BY MR. TERRY:

16 Q. Are you accredited as a

17 valuator?

18 A. Look, I have no formal

19 qualifications whatsoever to do what I've been

20 asked to do. I have been asked to do it because

21 that's what I have been doing for 25 years and

22 that's it.

23 So if you want me to say I

24 have -- I am not an accountant. I am not an

25 engineer. I am a banker. I don't know how to do

[Page 1226]

1 anything. I just use other people's money.

2 It's -- I got -- I don't have

3 any formal qualifications.

4 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: Is

5 that a definition of banker?

6 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

7 Pretty much.

8 THE WITNESS: So, yeah, I

9 don't have any qualifications. I don't have any

10 accreditations. I don't have any formal

11 qualifications I can claim. I am not claiming to

12 any of that. I have 20 years of history in the

13 industry, full stop. Make of that what you will.

14 MR. TERRY: Thank you very

15 much. I believe those are all my questions. I

16 will just maybe confer with my colleague for a

17 moment.

18 Yes, nothing further from me,

19 Dr. Guillet. Thank you very much.

20 THE WITNESS: It's a bit tough

21 to answer very loaded questions.

22 CO-ARBITRATOR GOTANDA: I have

23 a few questions if you could.

24 I am trying to understand the

25 dates and the relevance of that. And you go back

[Page 1227]

1 to 2008 and there's valuation date, let's say, of

2 2020.

3 Is 2008 too far back?

4 THE WITNESS: That is

5 definitely a fair question.

6 The advantage of having the

7 old data is you can look and see if you see any

8 trend.

9 And I believe the trend that I

10 see in the data that I have is that there has

11 actually been very little movement. Maybe a very

12 small upward trend but not orders of magnitude.

13 Maybe some percentage which is hard to see in the

14 volatility of the individual numbers which -- for

15 what still remain as fairly small sample.

16 So the fact that the more

17 recent numbers are not so far from the earlier

18 ones is a signal that there's been consistency, in

19 my view. So that's why I left them in.

20 I agree that if the goal is to

21 say let's see what the recent valuations, it is

22 not unreasonable to say let's just keep the more

23 recent numbers.

24 But given that they are fairly

25 similar, it shouldn't change the end result too

[Page 1228]

1 much.

2 CO-ARBITRATOR GOTANDA: Did

3 you adjust for inflation?

4 THE WITNESS: No.

5 CO-ARBITRATOR GOTANDA: Could

6 that be significant?

7 THE WITNESS: Well, between

8 2008 and 2020, not really. Since 2020, it's more

9 an open question.

10 Yeah, I mean, we have spent

11 15 years without inflation, essentially, so people

12 had forgotten about the whole thing. So now it's

13 suddenly back on the agenda, on the horizon, and

14 it will -- actually, it's an open question because

15 some countries still have tariffs that are not

16 inflated, not indexed.

17 So you can't squeeze the

18 cost -- I mean, if the revenue is still capped,

19 the cost will lead to the valuation of the

20 development project will remain labour force or

21 the projects won't happen. Something will have to

22 give.

23 CO-ARBITRATOR GOTANDA: If the

24 valuation date moved to 2023, the answers change

25 to both? Or 2024. If the valuation date is,

[Page 1229]

1 let's say today.

2 THE WITNESS: Also tough

3 question because, actually, 2023, and even from

4 mid 2022, the market has largely frozen. There

5 has been a lot fewer transactions. Investors in

6 very early development have stayed back from the

7 market.

8 Some have exited. Some, they

9 have abandoned projects or stopped them. Some

10 have stopped buying. Some that were active buyers

11 across.

12 So the volume of transactions

13 have gone down significantly.

14 What this has meant for prices

15 is, is not obvious but it's not upward pressure

16 for sure.

17 So whether the new prices

18 are -- what's the impact of inflation is probably

19 a smaller for these projects than the more general

20 market environment for the sector.

21 CO-ARBITRATOR GOTANDA: So

22 would your data set then change? I take it you

23 are saying probably not.

24 THE WITNESS: I don't have a

25 lot of data points for '22 or '23. If anything,

[Page 1230]

1 they would probably be on the lower bound and my

2 work is focused more on the very, very early stage

3 projects, even before they have site control and

4 things like that.

5 So that's a very narrow part

6 of the market. So I wouldn't be able to comment

7 as much on the rest.

8 But, from what I see in public

9 information, there's been a lot fewer transactions

10 also for late development stage projects.

11 CO-ARBITRATOR GOTANDA: And

12 would you have to adjust the numbers to account,

13 then, for inflation?

14 THE WITNESS: At this stage, I

15 would not but that's personal, you know, shoot

16 from the hip position.

17 CO-ARBITRATOR GOTANDA: Okay.

18 THE WITNESS: I would probably

19 need to study it more to give you more informed

20 answer.

21 CO-ARBITRATOR GOTANDA: Thank

22 you.

23 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

24 In the little bundle, could you turn to Tab 3 for

25 me, please. I want to take you to paragraph 474.

[Page 1231]

1 If you could also, at the same

2 time, open up your slide. Have you got a hard

3 copy of your slide presentation?

4 THE WITNESS: I do.

5 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

6 Yes so, page 7, the slide presentation.

7 And what I'd like your help

8 with is how -- I definitely don't want to get into

9 the territory you have just been with Mr. Terry of

10 where the nuances are.

11 But insofar as there are broad

12 blocks that the Tribunal has identified in the

13 Award, I have been trying to match those blocks

14 with your Slide 7. And I was hoping you could

15 help me on that.

16 So, at paragraph 474. We

17 talked about this yesterday.

18 Second paragraph:

19 "The evidence before the

20 Tribunal indicates that

21 there are three critical

22 value milestones for

23 offshore wind projects:

24 A, permitting, early

25 stage."[as read]

[Page 1232]

1 So can you tell me where on

2 your Slide 7, which columns are A permitting -- or

3 column is A, permitting early stage.

4 THE WITNESS: From reading

5 and -- from reading this, I, I think that they

6 mean, for permitting, what I have called fully

7 permitted, so that would be the four blocks and

8 that would be the end of the third column.

9 So that would be the end of

10 late development.

11 And I agree I have used the

12 definition of late development as being already

13 fully permitted so there's -- no, sorry, the end

14 of the second column.

15 In this graph, it's called mid

16 development. So, shovel ready, that's fully

17 permit -- the end of the second phase is fully

18 permitted. So the third page, late development,

19 is from fully permitted to --

20 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

21 Just let me ask the question.

22 THE WITNESS: Yes.

23 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

24 So the question was so can you just be very, very

25 clear.

[Page 1233]

1 The Tribunal's A permitting

2 early stage; did you say that's your first three

3 columns or your first two columns?

4 THE WITNESS: That's the first

5 two.

6 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

7 Okay.

8 So B, contracting, financing

9 and construction late stage; which column or

10 columns would that be on your Slide 7?

11 THE WITNESS: On my Slide 7,

12 that is the third column.

13 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

14 Okay.

15 So Slide C would be which

16 column?

17 THE WITNESS: Well, they have

18 put construction in B. So B would be the third

19 and the fourth. If -- since they have included

20 contracting and financing and construction, so

21 they haven't separated third and fourth column in

22 their level B.

23 And then C operations is the

24 last column.

25 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

[Page 1234]

1 Okay.

2 So if I were to match the

3 three, what the Tribunal describes as three

4 critical value milestones for offshore projects

5 with your chart, just to summarize what I think I

6 heard you say, permitting early stage would be

7 columns 1 and columns 2.

8 THE WITNESS: Yes.

9 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

10 Late stage would be columns 3 and 4, so to include

11 construction.

12 THE WITNESS: In their

13 writing, yes.

14 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

15 And third stage operations would be your Column 5.

16 THE WITNESS: Yes.

17 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

18 When you talk about late stage development, do you

19 mean before or after financial close or both?

20 THE WITNESS: I mean before

21 financial close. So the third column.

22 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

23 So, in your view -- so has the Tribunal's three

24 critical value milestones that it's identified

25 here, in your opinion, do they match your

[Page 1235]

1 definitions of early stage and late stage?

2 THE WITNESS: The border

3 between the two is correct.

4 I would not include

5 construction in the late stage. I would split

6 that into two, to have late stage development and

7 then construction.

8 But the border between early

9 stage and late stage is the same.

10 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

11 How can both of those things be correct?

12 If the border is correct, then

13 construction belongs in late stage.

14 THE WITNESS: In their

15 definition.

16 The border between early stage

17 and late stage, so one side of the border is

18 correct. The other side, they haven't put a

19 border between late stage and construction.

20 I would put an --

21 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

22 They had put a border. They have put a border on

23 the other side of construction; is that correct,

24 in your opinion, or not?

25 THE WITNESS: Yeah. That's

[Page 1236]

1 another border that I use. That's COD.

2 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

3 So you say construction belongs in late stage

4 development?

5 THE WITNESS: No, that's what

6 the Tribunal wrote.

7 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

8 All right. What do you say?

9 THE WITNESS: I say they are

10 two separate phases.

11 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

12 So is the Tribunal right or wrong, in your

13 opinion?

14 THE WITNESS: I would not

15 group contracting financing and construction in

16 one phase.

17 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

18 Can you turn over to paragraph 478 which is where

19 they apply these categories.

20 And what I have been grappling

21 with is whether the categories identified in 474

22 are then applied consistently in 478. And that's

23 what I have been trying to understand.

24 So if you could just look with

25 me at that. And, here, they are referring to your

[Page 1237]

1 testimony. Offshore wind projects have

2 relatively -- and they don't refer to you in

3 paragraph 474.

4 478, they do.

5 Depending on development

6 stage, project value may range from .1 million for

7 projects that are not fully permitted, to

8 .2 million for fully permitted.

9 So if we come back to your

10 Slide 7. That range of .1 million to .2 million,

11 which of your columns would that be?

12 THE WITNESS: The first part

13 of the sentence say that the project that are not

14 fully permitted are below 0.1 million, so that

15 would be early development.

16 And, in that, they are

17 consistent with me. And that's my first column.

18 They are putting that at below .1 million.

19 And then it goes -- and then

20 they say it goes to 0.2 million for fully

21 permitted projects. That would be my second

22 column.

23 And then they sort of jump to

24 the 4 million value for project that have reached

25 financial close, which is consistent with what I

[Page 1238]

1 say, but it sort of jumps over that thing that

2 they have put together in paragraph 474.

3 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

4 What is your mean or average multiplier for early

5 stage development?

6 THE WITNESS: Below 0.1.

7 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

8 Right.

9 So did you just say your

10 Column 1 is .1 to --

11 THE WITNESS: No, my first

12 column is below 0.1. That's what they say also.

13 The early projects that are not fully permitted

14 are below 0.1.

15 That's what 478 says:

16 "The project values may

17 range from below 0.1 for

18 projects that are not

19 fully permitted, 0.2 for

20 fully permitted."[as

21 read]

22 So they say the projects, in

23 the first column, are below 0.1. And the projects

24 in the second column are up to 0.2.

25 So I believe that's consistent

[Page 1239]

1 with what I am saying.

2 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

3 So if we go down to the next sentence after the

4 footnote 1043, so as to the early stage project,

5 specifically, Dr. Guillet's evidence on actual

6 transaction shows overall projects range from

7 .01 million to approximately .1 million, depending

8 on the development stage.

9 Which column is that?

10 THE WITNESS: That's inside

11 the first column.

12 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

13 So that's only your first column. So that's where

14 you get to the sentence we were just looking at.

15 Below 0.1 is way below to 0.01.

16 THE WITNESS: Yes.

17 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

18 So finish first column at .1.

19 Whereas late stage development

20 projects have been sold for prices ranging from .1

21 to .5.

22 Where is that in your --

23 THE WITNESS: So that would

24 cover Columns 2 and 3.

25 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: I

[Page 1240]

1 thought you said Column 2 was an early stage. I

2 took that note.

3 THE WITNESS: Well, I mean, we

4 haven't used early stage fully consistently across

5 the different testimonies and the different

6 phases.

7 So I think the, the -- these

8 tables are consistent.

9 The early stage, as it's been

10 defined, is anything below fully permitted and

11 that's the -- sorry, maybe I am getting confused

12 myself as well.

13 So the real milestones -- I

14 mean fully permitted is a real milestone so that's

15 the end of the second column. That's where shovel

16 ready is. That's fully permitted.

17 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: Can

18 I just ask you. I am getting confused too.

19 I want to take you to your

20 first, that is 12 December '22 report.

21 Paragraph 24. And 25.

22 This is where you first set

23 out, for our purposes, how you divide these

24 stages.

25 So, if we look at

[Page 1241]

1 paragraph 24, you say:

2 "The methodology is based

3 on the development stage

4 of offshore wind

5 projects, whereby

6 investors differentiate

7 between early stage

8 development, late stage

9 development, projects

10 under construction and

11 operating projects."[as

12 read]

13 So you have got four stages.

14 Then, in 25, you say that the

15 cutoff between the first two development stages,

16 early and late, is financial investment decision,

17 FID; is that correct?

18 Prior to financial investment

19 decision, we have two development phases; that's

20 what you seem to say in 25, at the first line?

21 THE WITNESS: Yeah. So

22 there's early development up to fully permitted,

23 and then late development after fully permitted.

24 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN:

25 Right. And that's the moment that the development

[Page 1242]

1 phases end. All of them.

2 And we move, then, into

3 construction.

4 THE WITNESS: Construction.

5 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: And

6 then operation.

7 And then you say, in

8 paragraph 25, I am not worried about Phase 3 and 4

9 because they're not at issue here. What I am

10 worried about is early development and late

11 development.

12 And that's where my confusion

13 comes. Because I thought, originally, that early

14 development ends, and I will give you your point

15 about lack of absolute cutoffs. But about the

16 point where you're pretty sure about your

17 permitting. All the permitting is done at the

18 end, effectively.

19 Or maybe you're in a situation

20 where you know the government is going to give you

21 all the permits or whatever. But you're pretty

22 assured that this is going ahead.

23 THE WITNESS: Yes.

24 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: And

25 you put something like 90 percent on that at the

[Page 1243]

1 end of early development; did you, or this

2 morning? I thought you did? I want to be clear

3 about that.

4 THE WITNESS: Yeah. I mean,

5 that you're close enough to fully permitted that

6 it can be valued in that ballpark.

7 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN:

8 Okay. So that's the end of early development.

9 Then what happens in the next

10 development phase?

11 THE WITNESS: That's financing

12 and contracting --

13 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: No.

14 Well, you are working on the financing because the

15 second one ends when you get the financing.

16 THE WITNESS: No, no. The

17 full development phase ends at financial close.

18 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN:

19 That's right, yeah.

20 So what are you doing? What

21 is a project operator doing, after they get all

22 their permits, what happens in the second phase?

23 Just bear with me. I am confused. Seriously.

24 THE WITNESS: So you have your

25 permits. You know the size of your site. You

[Page 1244]

1 know how high you're allowed to build the

2 turbines. You know how many you are allowed. You

3 know how many megawatts. Then you have done the

4 technical studies to identify how you are going to

5 do your layout.

6 And then that's when you

7 actually negotiate the contracts to buy the

8 turbines, to install them, to buy the cables, the

9 foundations.

10 So that's the commercial

11 negotiations to actually get the project built.

12 And, in parallel to that, you negotiate the

13 financing for that if you need external financing

14 or you --

15 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN:

16 Yeah. And then, if you're successful in that

17 late, what you call the late stage development,

18 you get your financing and you move on to

19 construction and operation.

20 I think that helps me a lot.

21 Thank you very much.

22 THE WITNESS: The confusion

23 may have come from the fact that what we've --

24 what is labelled here early development stage, all

25 the way to fully permitted, since I have been

[Page 1245]

1 working in that, I have started to split it into

2 different sub phases, so to speak, and that has

3 generally -- which, in this graph, is early and

4 mid, which is maybe would be the good way.

5 But the report doesn't use

6 early and mid so that's maybe why the confusion.

7 And in terms of the benchmarks

8 that I have been using, the early -- what I have

9 called early stage project, those would be at the

10 early half or bottom --

11 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: The

12 first development phase.

13 THE WITNESS: The first part

14 of the development phase, the early stages. And

15 the late development are those that are around

16 fully permitted. So either at fully permitted or

17 as some formally, slightly before fully permitted.

18 But in that general area.

19 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: They

20 are all in Phase 1 but --

21 THE WITNESS: Well, some are

22 at the back end of early stage and but close to

23 late and some are already fully permitted but they

24 are not all formally fully permitted, yes.

25 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN:

[Page 1246]

1 Thank you.

2 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

3 So just finishing on paragraph 478 of the

4 Tribunal's Award.

5 It's Tab 3.

6 THE WITNESS: 478, yes.

7 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

8 478.

9 So the second sentence:

10 "Project value may range

11 from below 0.1 for

12 projects that are not

13 fully permitted to .2 for

14 fully permitted early

15 stage projects."[as read]

16 Just stop there.

17 That's your Columns 1 and 2,

18 you said earlier.

19 I think you already said that.

20 Early stage development is your Columns 1 and 2.

21 THE WITNESS: Yes. But these

22 columns don't exactly fit with the definitions in

23 my report. So I am using different definitions in

24 this graph and my report and the Tribunal use

25 slightly.

[Page 1247]

1 So, in paragraph 478, there

2 they are consistent with my graph --

3 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

4 Just stop.

5 Just -- is your -- and

6 Mr. Terry did ask you about this.

7 But are you using entirely

8 different categories in your expert opinion before

9 us, to what you used in your expert opinion with

10 the other Tribunal?

11 THE WITNESS: Well, the

12 problem is that I haven't used defined words. So

13 early and late are vague terms and I realize that

14 there is some ambiguity as to early of what phase

15 and late of what phase.

16 But, in paragraph 478, their

17 first sentence refers to Column 1 of my Table 7.

18 And their second sentence refers to Column 2.

19 But I accept that I haven't

20 used these two columns in my report -- they are

21 both covered by early stage in my definition in

22 the reports.

23 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

24 You don't mean first sentence because the first

25 sentence is -- let's throw away the first

[Page 1248]

1 sentence.

2 So the second sentence,

3 depending on the development stage, that refers

4 only to Column 1 of your report?

5 THE WITNESS: Of my graph in

6 my presentation.

7 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

8 So your first of your five columns in your graph,

9 could go up to 4.5 million per megawatt?

10 THE WITNESS: No.

11 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

12 Well, that's what the first sentence says.

13 THE WITNESS: No, it doesn't.

14 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

15 Well, yes, it does, sir. Read the sentence:

16 "Depending on the

17 development stage, the

18 project value may range

19 and up to."[as read]

20 End of the first sentence:

21 "And up to

22 4.5 million --"[as read]

23 THE WITNESS: That's the full

24 cycle of the project. Up to 4.5 is Column 5.

25 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

[Page 1249]

1 Just work with me here, please.

2 You said -- and I think you

3 tried to cut this short and it can't be cut short.

4 The first sentence refers to

5 Column 1 of your report. The second sentence

6 refers to Column 2.

7 That can't be right because

8 the first sentence doesn't refer to any stage at

9 all.

10 The second sentence, in

11 paragraph 478, seems to me to refer to at least

12 two stages, possibly three stages.

13 I am trying to understand

14 which phrase of the second sentence relates to

15 which column.

16 THE WITNESS: Okay. Let's cut

17 this down in propositions rather than sentences

18 because the second sentence, the one starting at

19 "depending", I believe, covers the -- the whole

20 sentence covers the full gambit of projects, all

21 the way from early development up to operations.

22 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

23 Right.

24 THE WITNESS: So the first

25 proposition within them is from below 0.1 million

[Page 1250]

1 for projects that are not fully permitted. That's

2 the first -- stopping there.

3 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

4 Below 0.1 to .2.

5 THE WITNESS: No, no. I am

6 stopping at from 0.1. That's the first column.

7 Then 0.2 is already the

8 second column.

9 And to, approximately 4

10 million, they jump to the fourth column.

11 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

12 Okay. Slow down.

13 Below 0.1 is your first

14 column, what you call site control early

15 development.

16 THE WITNESS: Yes.

17 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

18 And then from, so that's below, less than 0.1.

19 From 0.1 to 0.2, fully

20 permitted early stage, you'd put that in your

21 second column?

22 THE WITNESS: Well, that's

23 actually third column already since it's fully

24 permitted.

25 So it's the end of the second

[Page 1251]

1 column. It's the border. The 0.2 is the border

2 between the second and the third column in my

3 graph, page 7.

4 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

5 And then we have from 0.1 to approximately 4

6 million for projects that have reached financial

7 close.

8 THE WITNESS: So 4 million is

9 at the border between the third column and the

10 fourth column. That's when you have reached

11 financial close and construction starts.

12 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

13 And then we have up to 4 and a half that have

14 reached commercial operation.

15 THE WITNESS: So that's the

16 end of the fourth column when you have reached COD

17 and you start into operations.

18 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

19 So, if we come back to paragraph 474, when the

20 Tribunal says early stage permitting, that is the

21 two ranges from up to .1, early stage, and then,

22 then to fully permitted to .2.

23 THE WITNESS: Yes.

24 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

25 That includes both of those.

[Page 1252]

1 THE WITNESS: Yes.

2 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

3 Their second, their B, late stage, does that

4 correspond with the next category of .2 to 4

5 million?

6 THE WITNESS: Well, in that

7 paragraph 474, in item B, they regroup Columns 3,

8 the development, contracting and financing, and

9 Column 4, which is construction.

10 And there is really a

11 milestone at the middle of that which is financial

12 close. I don't know why they have put that in the

13 middle but it's really a big distinction in the

14 middle of that phase.

15 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

16 So if the word "construction" was not in B, then

17 the .2 to the 4 million would correspond with B?

18 THE WITNESS: But, somewhere

19 else, they put the -- in paragraph 479, they made

20 the reference to 0.1 to 0.5 -- no, that's in --

21 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

22 Just answer my question, hey.

23 So can we come back, please.

24 Can you look at paragraph 478 which is what my

25 question relates to.

[Page 1253]

1 478, other page, please.

2 THE WITNESS: It's the next

3 sentence in 478 where they make that distinction,

4 as to the early stage project, specifically,

5 Dr. Guillet's evidence on actual transactions

6 shows that the overall valuations of such project

7 range from 0.1 to 0.1 beginning stage, whereas

8 late development projects have been sold from

9 prices ranging from 0.01 to 0.05.

10 That would be the late

11 development. That would be my third column.

12 They don't have that

13 milestone. The 0.5 million per megawatt is not

14 mentioned in 474. But it would be the

15 intermediate point in their level B.

16 4 million is financial close.

17 I mean, there is no ambiguity. No project under

18 development is worth 4 million per megawatt.

19 That's billions of euros for any project.

20 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

21 The part of the second sentence that I asked you

22 to look at, "to approximately 4 million megawatts

23 for projects that have reached financial close";

24 would that correspond with the Tribunal's B from

25 474 if construction were omitted from B?

[Page 1254]

1 THE WITNESS: Yes -- omitted

2 or included, sorry?

3 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

4 Omitted.

5 THE WITNESS: So if it was

6 taken out of B, then the limit would not be 4

7 million. It would be 0.5 -- 0.4, 0.5.

8 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

9 So was it consistent with your evidence that there

10 is a valuation range from .2 -- is it consistent

11 with your evidence here -- this is what matters to

12 me -- that .2 million to 4 million euro per

13 megawatt is the range up to financial close?

14 THE WITNESS: No.

15 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

16 Okay.

17 THE WITNESS: Well, I mean,

18 the 4 million is what you get at financial close.

19 So, yes. But, before financial close -- sorry.

20 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES: I

21 give up. Okay. That's fine. Forget it.

22 Ms. Squires, he is all yours.

23 THE WITNESS: I am sorry.

24 MS. SQUIRES: I just need

25 one --

[Page 1255]

1 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

2 Do you want to take a five-minute?

3 MS. SQUIRES: Yes.

4 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

5 Yeah, that might be a good idea. I think I need

6 coffee.

7 Okay. All right.

8 --- Upon recess at 10:29 a.m.

9 --- Upon resuming at 10:46 a.m.

10 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

11 Ms. Squires, I want to be able to give Mr. Terry

12 and, indeed, you the opportunity to ask any

13 questions arising out of my additional questions

14 after Mr. Terry had finished his cross. And I am

15 just not quite sure when to do that but it would

16 be easy if he didn't have any.

17 So did you have any,

18 Mr. Terry?

19 MR. TERRY: It's easy.

20 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

21 Good. I will put that out of my mind.

22 Ms. Squires, it's all yours.

23 Thank you, Mr. Terry.

24 RE-EXAMINATION BY MS. SQUIRES:

25 Q. Hi, Dr. Guillet.

[Page 1256]

1 A. Hello again.

2 Q. I am going to ask Ryan,

3 our technical person here, to put your slide

4 presentation up on the screen just so we can have

5 a better look at it. And I am going to ask you

6 some questions and, as I do that, I am going to

7 ask Ryan to highlight things to make it easy as to

8 what I am referring to.

9 So if you can just keep an eye

10 on the screen.

11 A. Okay.

12 Q. And I would also like if

13 you can take out the Award, Presiding Arbitrator

14 Miles had you there a minute ago. But I would

15 like to look at paragraph 474.

16 Okay. So we see in the Award

17 that the Tribunal said, the Tribunal indicated

18 three critical value milestones for offshore

19 projects, A, B and C in the Award; right?

20 A. Yes.

21 Q. I am just going to try

22 and match those up right now to where -- I am

23 going to ask you to match them up, I guess, to

24 where they are on this.

25 So if we -- would I be correct

[Page 1257]

1 in saying that permitting early stage would be the

2 first two columns in your table?

3 A. Yes, up to fully

4 permitted. Yes.

5 Q. So the first two columns.

6 So that would encapsulate

7 paragraph 474A, 474(a).

8 Is it right to say that, if we

9 look at 474(b), and we were only to look at

10 contracting and financing, am I right that that's

11 the third column in your table?

12 A. If we are looking only at

13 the contracting and financing, that is, indeed,

14 the third column.

15 Q. Okay. So that would be

16 474(b) for contracting and financing; is that

17 right?

18 MR. TERRY: Just if may make

19 one comment, Madam President.

20 I appreciate that this may be

21 quite helpful the way Ms. Squires is doing this,

22 and clearly, it's leading. But I am just going to

23 ask the Tribunal to be a little bit cautious and

24 Ms. Squires to be a little bit cautious in doing

25 that and adding new things up to the slide and

[Page 1258]

1 things like that.

2 So that's the one comment I

3 would make.

4 MS. SQUIRES: Okay. We don't

5 have to add things on to the slide. We could just

6 do the highlights, if that's preferred.

7 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

8 Yeah, the highlights is fine. I am interested to

9 know what you are going to do when you get to 478.

10 The 474, I thought we had done

11 and was easy, but I assume she is setting it up

12 for 478 which has still left me baffled.

13 MS. SQUIRES: That is where I

14 am trying. Yes, exactly.

15 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES: I

16 think -- look, we are in the realm of submission.

17 I understand that. How we would weigh the expert

18 testimony, insofar as it is expert testimony, we

19 will take into account the fact that we are in the

20 realm of submission.

21 Nevertheless, while we have

22 Dr. Guillet, it would be useful to try to unravel

23 this --

24 MR. TERRY: I have no

25 objection to that. I just wanted to kind of put

[Page 1259]

1 it out there --

2 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES: I

3 understand. And noted. Yeah, all right.

4 And, if gets too carried away,

5 just.

6 THE WITNESS: Can I maybe make

7 one clarification or am I not allowed to?

8 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

9 No. You answer questions. That's your job.

10 Okay.

11 BY MS. SQUIRES:

12 Q. On your table then,

13 Dr. Guillet, where would you put 474(c)?

14 A. So 474(c) is operations,

15 that would be the last column.

16 Q. And then the part of

17 474(b) that we didn't talk about, the

18 construction?

19 A. That's the second part of

20 474(b) and construction.

21 Q. And your table, that's

22 column, which one?

23 A. Column 4.

24 Q. Okay. So now I am going

25 to go to 478.

[Page 1260]

1 Okay. I am going to try and

2 look at this here. Let's read together.

3 The Tribunal said:

4 "Depending on the

5 development stage, the

6 project value may range

7 from below 0.1 million

8 megawatts per projects

9 that are not fully

10 permitted."[as read]

11 Can you tell me where, on your

12 table, you would put that 0.1 million per

13 megawatt?

14 Like in terms of columns and

15 lines, I mean.

16 A. So that's Column 1 and

17 part of 2 because it's Column 2 but not fully

18 permitted. So it's somewhere -- it includes at

19 least part of Column 2 but not the end, not the

20 border of Column 2.

21 Q. Okay.

22 And then so the up to 2

23 million per megawatt for fully permitted, where

24 would that fall on your chart?

25 A. So that would be the end

[Page 1261]

1 of Column 2.

2 Q. Okay.

3 A. At the border when you

4 get to fully permitted.

5 Q. And then to

6 approximately --

7 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

8 Hang on, sorry. The 2 million --

9 THE WITNESS: 0.2 million.

10 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

11 If 0.2 would be at the end but up to wouldn't be

12 at the end. The up to would be all the way

13 through, presumably.

14 THE WITNESS: Yes.

15 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

16 So was the question was where is he up to?

17 THE WITNESS: It would have

18 been Column 2.

19 BY MS. SQUIRES:

20 Q. You said the column ends

21 with a .2; is that correct?

22 A. As an order of magnitude,

23 yes.

24 Q. And then the next part of

25 paragraph 478 says, to approximately 4 million

[Page 1262]

1 euros per megawatt for projects that have reached

2 financial close.

3 Where would we place the 4

4 million?

5 A. So the 4 million is at

6 financial close. That's the border. That's the

7 beginning of the fourth column.

8 Because what happens, on

9 financial close, is that you commit to budget for

10 construction. So you had a project that was up to

11 now only in development and a fully developed

12 project ready to sign.

13 That's what's worth 0.4, 0.5

14 depending on the number you use.

15 And then you add, on top of

16 that, 3.5ish million of new money, which is the

17 construction budget added on top of the

18 development budget and that's how you get to 4

19 million.

20 Q. Okay. Yeah. Okay --

21 A. It's because there is no

22 money coming in at this point in time.

23 Q. Yeah, no. All I am doing

24 right now, Mr. Guillet, is asking for your help in

25 trying to match up the exact numbers in 478 and

[Page 1263]

1 your table.

2 If we just continue with 478,

3 and then it says up to 4.5 million megawatts per

4 projects that have reached commercial operation,

5 where, on your table, would you place 4.5 million

6 megawatts?

7 A. So that's the beginning

8 of Column 5. The 4 million is the beginning of

9 Column 4 and 4.5 million is the beginning of

10 Column 5.

11 Q. Okay.

12 So, if we just keep going with

13 the paragraph, we have -- they are relying on your

14 testimony to say the overall valuations of such

15 projects range from 0.01.

16 So where would you put -- so

17 we are talking about early stage project, sorry.

18 Where would you put the 0.01?

19 A. So that would be

20 somewhere in the first column or at the beginning,

21 beginning to middle of the first column. That's

22 the earliest, earliest stage projects.

23 Q. And we discussed a minute

24 ago the .01, I think you said was somewhere in the

25 second column --

[Page 1264]

1 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: He

2 said at the border.

3 BY MS. SQUIRES:

4 Q. .1?

5 A. The 0.1 is the beginning

6 of the second column.

7 Q. Okay. Yeah.

8 A. And the 0.5 that is

9 mentioned in paragraph 478 would be the end of the

10 third column, just before financial close.

11 Q. Sorry, just to follow

12 what you said there, Dr. Guillet.

13 You are talking about:

14 "Whereas late development

15 stage projects have been

16 sold for prices ranging

17 from 0.1."[as read]

18 Which you said was the end of

19 the first column.

20 A. Yeah.

21 Q. To 0.5 -- I am going to

22 have a follow up question, I think, to this.

23 But the 0.5 million, where did

24 you place that?

25 A. That's the end of the

[Page 1265]

1 third column. And the 0.5 is a part of the 4

2 million because the 4 million comes from adding to

3 the development budget, the construction budget.

4 Q. Okay. So some -- is what

5 you're saying, correct me if I am wrong, that

6 somewhere between -- somewhere before that

7 $4 million line, it's worth 0.5 and then, when you

8 reach financial close --

9 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

10 Ms. Squires, I don't think you are helping

11 yourself.

12 It's not linear. It's not

13 from 0 to 4 and a half million. Every single

14 stage of every single project has a value range

15 and those value ranges overlap all the way along.

16 So the exercise won't work.

17 So I think we will stop there.

18 If you want to create a slide.

19 MS. SQUIRES: Yeah.

20 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES: I

21 don't think Dr. Guillet is going to give you

22 anything else other than what's already in his

23 testimony, either oral or written. If you want to

24 create a slide for closing, then I think perhaps

25 do that.

[Page 1266]

1 I think, at this point, it's

2 just going to get murkier rather than clearer.

3 MS. SQUIRES: Yes.

4 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

5 So perhaps move on to your next topic.

6 MS. SQUIRES: Yes, I don't

7 think we have anything else for Dr. Guillet this

8 morning.

9 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

10 Okay.

11 So, Dr. Guillet, I did tell

12 you that cross-examination is not fun for anybody.

13 Well, maybe for counsel. But it's not fun for the

14 people being cross-examined.

15 But it's a really important

16 part of our process and the integrity of our

17 process and testing the legitimacy of written

18 opinions and testing the veracity of evidence and

19 not the truthfulness of experts. But, rather, you

20 know, whether the assumptions they are using

21 actually can only be construed in the way they put

22 or whether they can be construed in other ways.

23 It's been enormously helpful

24 having you testify.

25 Dr. Tetard, Mr. Milburn and

[Page 1267]

1 Mr. Tobis, I know you are still here. It was also

2 extremely useful having you testify.

3 We appreciate the four of your

4 expertise.

5 For my part, I value and

6 appreciate having a totally immersed industry

7 expert who values these particular projects every

8 single day, rather than just professional valuers

9 who value anything. I think it is valuable and

10 worthwhile.

11 And, certainly, from my part,

12 it was not a criticism. I was trying to

13 understand what your expertise parameters were.

14 So thank you for coming.

15 Don't be put off, any of you. It's been a

16 valuable exercise.

17 And thank you very much to

18 counsel for handling all of those experts in a

19 very, very professional and helpful way.

20 So you're done. You can speak

21 to whom so ever you please.

22 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: Have

23 dinner with them.

24 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

25 Have dinner with them, have lunch.

[Page 1268]

1 And so we are closing the

2 evidence now. And let's take a moment about what

3 we are going to do tomorrow.

4 Can I just -- so, as I said

5 yesterday, I think we would like the Tribunal to

6 go away for 15 minutes or so and work out what's

7 helpful for us.

8 What might be useful before we

9 do that is just to solicit your views.

10 So, Mr. Terry, if you could,

11 perhaps, indicate what your thinking might be a

12 useful way to run tomorrow, from your perspective,

13 so we can think about that.

14 And, Mr. Neufeld, Ms. Squires,

15 Ms. Dosman, one or all of you do the same and then

16 we can just take that into consideration.

17 But there will be particular

18 bits that you would have saved for closing that

19 you will want us to be mindful of as well, I am

20 sure.

21 So what will tomorrow look

22 like in your wish list, Mr. Terry?

23 MR. TERRY: And I might seek

24 further input from my team afterwards but just, on

25 a preliminary basis, we are, of course, most

[Page 1269]

1 interested in what's troubling the Tribunal and

2 most interested in hearing your questions or

3 concerns.

4 We have been, as you do in

5 these hearings, you know, getting ready and

6 preparing materials to deal with whatever may

7 happen on Friday. So we have got room to pivot as

8 to whatever makes the most sense.

9 We certainly appreciate the

10 approach the Tribunal has been taking in terms of

11 having what we might call a hot bench, which we

12 certainly very much appreciate having the

13 interaction. And if we can run something tomorrow

14 that involves a focus on what's concerning you.

15 We want to make sure that we

16 leave you with indications or summaries of what we

17 see as things that are important in the facts and

18 the law, but we don't want to spend a lot of time

19 taking you through certain areas of case law that

20 might be -- we might have dealt with in the

21 pleadings that may be less relevant to you.

22 So I think that's where we

23 really appreciate your questions.

24 And we are happy to -- I mean,

25 it might be appropriate, in the give and take

[Page 1270]

1 tomorrow, to have, you know, some part of reply or

2 four rounds to the discussions. We are open to

3 what the Tribunal wants to do on that.

4 But I -- or we could break it

5 up in some way by issue.

6 But I think what we are

7 thinking tomorrow is something that allows all of

8 us, I guess, to get at a reasonable period of time

9 but allows you to thoroughly consider and have

10 thorough discussions on the issue.

11 And we are happy to. In terms

12 of timing. I think we are happy looking at the

13 team to start at the regular time at 9 o'clock. I

14 don't think -- assuming we will get some direction

15 for you. We are willing to take all the time

16 that's necessary to have submissions that are

17 going to be focused.

18 I will just check to see

19 whether anyone on my team has anything to add on

20 that.

21 No, nothing further right now.

22 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

23 Okay, thank you very much.

24 Mr. Neufeld.

25 MR. NEUFELD: Thank you.

[Page 1271]

1 Madam President.

2 I was comforted by Mr. Terry's

3 words that -- although I dislike the word "pivot".

4 I think that's horrible. But we should move

5 forward with the Tribunal's questions.

6 We have been at this a long

7 time and I don't mean this week. I mean years and

8 years and years.

9 So it is time now to draw a

10 line. We are very happy to be directed by the

11 Tribunal to answer questions. We heard you loud

12 and clear that there are legal matters you want

13 addressed and we are very happy to address those

14 matters and to focus entirely, our submissions

15 entirely on those and even to jettison anything

16 that we had planned to say.

17 I mean, it's really -- the

18 focus here is to give you what you need so please

19 tell us what you need and we will do that for our

20 closings.

21 Thank you.

22 MR. TERRY: Madam President,

23 if I might just add one more thing.

24 I think it's the preference on

25 both sides not to -- if not necessary, to do

[Page 1272]

1 post-hearing briefs.

2 But, of course, if there

3 should end up being something at the end of the

4 day tomorrow that you want some further written

5 materials on or some further help and we sort of

6 are starting to run out of time, we, of course,

7 are open to that, if it makes sense.

8 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

9 Okay. Thank you, Mr. Terry.

10 Mr. Neufeld, I understood that

11 as a specific focused offer if there is a specific

12 issue left over needing something more, perhaps,

13 more law or more argument, would you -- I don't

14 anticipate that, but would you be amenable if we

15 needed that?

16 MR. NEUFELD: Of course we are

17 amenable to whatever you need. I think it can be

18 done in the closing statements tomorrow.

19 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

20 Yeah. Okay. All right.

21 So, in New Zealand rugby

22 parlance, that was a hospital pass. You have all

23 said -- now you all go and figure it out and tell

24 us what you want.

25 So we will go do that. It may

[Page 1273]

1 be a little bit longer than 15 minutes but we will

2 come back as soon as we can.

3 But thank you very much very,

4 very much.

5 --- Upon recess at 11:06 a.m.

6 --- Upon resuming at 11:42 a.m.

7 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

8 Thank you all for the extra time. That was really

9 helpful for us.

10 So we have had our discussion

11 and actually jumped ahead and determined the

12 questions that we want you to address. So we are

13 going to give them to you now orally. They will

14 be in the transcript. But, if they are not clear,

15 it will give you an opportunity to clarify as

16 well.

17 In terms of format for

18 tomorrow, what we would like to do is keep with

19 the two and a half hours per party.

20 We would like each party, at

21 the beginning of its presentation, to give an

22 uninterrupted 15-minute executive summary.

23 So having, you know, heard our

24 concerns and input thus far, and you know what our

25 questions are, sort of your best case path to

[Page 1274]

1 success on the claim or path to success on the

2 defence, you know, the elevator pitch, the

3 15-minute executive summary.

4 Then, at the end, we would

5 like each of you or so -- we may do this after you

6 have addressed the two-hour body of our questions.

7 At the end, we would like each side to give

8 another 15-minute wrap up. It doesn't have to be

9 15 but up to 15 wrap up.

10 So insofar as there are sort

11 of prepared submissions, that's where they will

12 be.

13 Now, in terms of the two hours

14 in the middle -- and we didn't talk about this

15 but.

16 --- Off-the-record discussion.

17 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

18 The way we are going to do it is the 15-minute

19 executive summaries, Mr. Terry, you will give

20 yours. Mr. Neufeld or whoever from your team, you

21 will give yours. The 15, the 15.

22 Then we will get into the body

23 where we want you to address our questions but

24 not -- the two hours of your sort of the body of

25 your closing, address our questions but also give

[Page 1275]

1 us what you think we need to do and we need to

2 know.

3 So you're not limited to our

4 questions but we do want you to answer them.

5 And we didn't feel entirely

6 that all of our questions, from prior to opening,

7 were fully addressed. So we really do want our

8 questions addressed.

9 And then, after you have each

10 done that two-hour bit, the wrap up, and we will

11 take a break before this, but the wrap up, the

12 sort of closing, closing, 15, Mr. Terry and

13 Mr. Neufeld will do those at the end.

14 So if you could be 15, 15,

15 two, two, 15, 15. Yeah?

16 All right.

17 MR. TERRY: May I ask a

18 question about the two hours?

19 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

20 Yes.

21 MR. TERRY: Are we thinking

22 two hours including Tribunal question time?

23 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

24 Yes, yes.

25 MR. TERRY: Okay.

[Page 1276]

1 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

2 And I will be disciplined.

3 MR. TERRY: It's very helpful

4 hearing what's on your minds.

5 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

6 No, but we will be disciplined.

7 So there are five questions.

8 Some might require a little bit more than the

9 others but we will be thinking of the blocks of

10 those five.

11 So we will be keeping watch on

12 time. José Luis will be keeping watch on our

13 time.

14 So the five questions or

15 issues that we would like you to deal with, there

16 are two threshold issues. And I am calling them

17 threshold so as not to label them jurisdictional

18 or admissibility, but two threshold issues.

19 The first issue we want to

20 hear you from, in terms of your best case, is res

21 judicata.

22 And, cause of action estoppel,

23 we don't think there is a dispute between the

24 parties. We think it's pretty clear that the

25 Tribunal decided what it decided on fair and

[Page 1277]

1 equitable treatment and decided what it decided on

2 expropriation at that time.

3 If there is dispute on cause

4 of action estoppel, you need to tell us what that

5 is but we are assuming there isn't.

6 What we are much more

7 interested in and concerned about is the

8 collateral estoppel or what I would call issue

9 estoppel.

10 And so which are the issues of

11 fact that each party says are barred from

12 reopening and which are not barred from reopening

13 and why.

14 Now, if the legal principles

15 on issue estoppel are largely agreed, please just

16 confirm that to us in the course of tomorrow.

17 But, if there's dispute as to

18 some of the nuance of the collateral estoppel,

19 then set out your legal position on that as well.

20 But we think the cause of

21 action estoppel is primarily a fact issue. We

22 want to understand which issues you're saying are

23 closed for good and which issues are not closed.

24 Any questions on that?

25 MR. TERRY: None from us.

[Page 1278]

1 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

2 Okay. So the next threshold issue is the

3 limitation point.

4 So Articles 1116, 1117 and the

5 knowledge of the alleged breach and knowledge that

6 the investor has incurred loss or damage.

7 We want to understand better,

8 we want better to understand both parties'

9 positions as to the effect of the application of

10 1116 and 1117.

11 So what is the knowledge of

12 the alleged breach in these proceedings and what

13 is, in addition, the knowledge of the alleged loss

14 or damage in these proceedings.

15 And, really, as a matter of

16 law, to what extent, if at all, can elements of

17 that knowledge of alleged brief predate the

18 three-year limitation period.

19 We think that's a legal and a

20 factual question. So we want you to address both.

21 Any questions?

22 MR. TERRY: Nothing from us.

23 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

24 Okay.

25 So then we move into the

[Page 1279]

1 merits.

2 And related to that 1116, 1117

3 question, for fair and equitable treatment, we

4 want to understand clearly, from both parties,

5 what your best case is for either alternative if

6 we were to accept, as we think is the Respondent's

7 case, but subject to clarification, that there are

8 certain acts, actions, measures, if you like, by

9 Canada that will fall out the three-year period.

10 If we were to accept that and

11 take certain acts of conduct, actions or measures,

12 elements out, take them out at the cut-off date of

13 the critical date. I think the Respondent

14 described it as on December 22nd, 2017. What

15 would be the FET case left for the Claimants?

16 So to understand those two

17 alternatives, the knowledge of the alleged breach

18 and knowledge of the alleged loss, in total, as

19 limitation point. But then, if we were to accept

20 the Respondent's case, as we think we understand

21 it, that certain elements of that list of conduct

22 are out of time, what would the FET basis be

23 arising out of the remaining elements.

24 And I should, I hope it was

25 clear but I didn't say it expressly.

[Page 1280]

1 Absolutely nothing is

2 predetermined here. There are many, many lines of

3 analysis and logic that we need to consider. And

4 some of our questions arise as we are going down

5 one line of logic but it doesn't mean we have

6 decided to go down that line of logic.

7 So we just want to know where

8 each route would take us.

9 So then the second part of the

10 merits is expropriation.

11 We'd like to understand more

12 clearly -- and it may well be in your written

13 submissions, Mr. Terry.

14 But we would like to

15 understand and for you to address tomorrow,

16 please, more clearly, your position on the

17 application of the CUSMA Annex 14B. And, in

18 particular, the application of investment-backed

19 expectations as a requirement for expropriation,

20 either as a matter of application of Annex 14B or

21 as a matter of customary international law.

22 And you'll recall the

23 Respondent said it was descriptive rather than

24 prescriptive, so we would like you to address

25 that.

[Page 1281]

1 So do we need to look at

2 investment-backed expectations as a requirement or

3 element of expropriation and, if we do, we would

4 like you to consider what that means for Claimant.

5 Any questions?

6 MR. TERRY: None from us.

7 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

8 Okay.

9 So then we are moving and it

10 may feel a jump, but our fourth question is -- our

11 fifth question -- I was looking at the notes -- is

12 loss.

13 What we would like you to

14 address is, if we were to reach the point where

15 we -- if we needed to reach the point and we

16 reached the point, that we considered the Award in

17 Windstream I made the Claimant whole at that time,

18 we would like you to address what is your case,

19 what is each side's case on the appreciation of

20 value -- perhaps, on the Respondent's side, the

21 lack of appreciation of value -- between the date

22 of the first Award and today and on what basis are

23 you claiming that appreciation of value.

24 There is a bit of nuance

25 between there that you probably do need to come

[Page 1282]

1 back and address, following the experts, on which

2 date we take into account. And I think there's a

3 legal question there that touches on res judicata,

4 perhaps.

5 The Claimant's experts

6 yesterday reached back to the date of the last

7 Deloitte report being June 2015, if I remember

8 rightly, but the Award is, of course, 27th of

9 September 2016.

10 So, as a matter of law, what

11 would be the right date if the Tribunal were to

12 get there and were to consider that Claimant was

13 made whole as at -- by the first Award.

14 Any questions on that?

15 MS. SHERKEY: Not on that but

16 I do have a question back to -- I have one

17 follow-up question on cause of action estoppel not

18 on the loss.

19 Which was just your question

20 focused on issue estoppel and had said there

21 doesn't seem to be a dispute on cause of action

22 estoppel. And I just wanted to clarify that.

23 I think we agree on the legal

24 principles. The parties disagree as to whether

25 cause of action estoppel is met.

[Page 1283]

1 So I have your question on

2 issue estoppel, but I just wanted to clarify what

3 you meant on there not being a dispute on cause of

4 action estoppel, to just make sure we properly

5 address that issue.

6 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

7 If there is a dispute, you better make us aware of

8 it. So you need to address it, if there is a

9 dispute.

10 MS. SHERKEY: Okay.

11 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES: I

12 had understood that the Claimant's position was it

13 was bound by res judicata in the first Award.

14 MS. SHERKEY: Yes.

15 And I think the dispute is on

16 the application here. We say there isn't cause of

17 action estoppel because there aren't the same two

18 causes of action between the two proceedings. And

19 they say this whole claim is barred.

20 That's what I was getting at.

21 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

22 Okay, Ms. Sherkey. It may have been just the way

23 I expressed it.

24 Insofar as the causes of

25 action have been litigated, the Claimant is

[Page 1284]

1 precluded from bringing those same causes of

2 action again. That is undisputed.

3 MS. SHERKEY: Yes.

4 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

5 Right.

6 Insofar as whether the causes

7 of action in this proceeding are new or not,

8 that's an open issue.

9 MS. SHERKEY: Yes.

10 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

11 All right.

12 Yes, you can address that but

13 where we would like precision on the issues and I

14 think it gets us to the same place.

15 MS. SHERKEY: Yes.

16 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

17 Thank you.

18 So our last question, question

19 six was causation. And I know it feels a bit odd

20 to have causation after loss. But we think

21 it's -- we'd asked you to deal with causation in

22 our first questions and we don't feel it has been

23 satisfactorily dealt with by either party.

24 So we, think, if you address

25 what is the loss caused -- what is the loss that

[Page 1285]

1 has arisen since the first Award.

2 And then what, of each of the

3 causes of action, what breach, and breaking into

4 each of the causes of action, what breach has

5 caused that loss.

6 So separating expropriation

7 for inequitable treatment, in particular.

8 Any questions on that?

9 MR. NEUFELD: The question I

10 have is are there any factual, just straight facts

11 that you need us to -- and I don't mean any facts

12 related to these questions.

13 I mean is there anything that

14 you have left in your mind, any questions on

15 facts -- any question marks on facts?

16 CO-ARBITRATOR MCLACHLIN: Yes.

17 Lots but we will decide.

18 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

19 Did you hear that? Lots but we will decide.

20 I don't think it's a priority

21 for these two and a half hours. We have extensive

22 fact witness statements. We had the benefit of

23 the cross-examination of the witnesses that were

24 called. We have a very experienced judge.

25 We think we have the evidence

[Page 1286]

1 to hand for what we need to determine in terms of

2 facts in dispute.

3 Except for insofar as the

4 facts arise out of the questions.

5 So if there is a loss of

6 appreciation in value, what are the facts that

7 support that appreciation or that lack of

8 appreciation, so. And same with causation.

9 If there are still disputed

10 facts between the parties as to particular actions

11 by the government or measures by the government,

12 then that will obviously come into the discussion

13 on whether or not they can cause a loss.

14 MR. NEUFELD: Okay. I think

15 Ms. Squires has a question to ask as well.

16 MS. SQUIRES: Just a very

17 quick one.

18 Does the caveat in Question 3

19 about if you were to accept Canada's case that

20 certain measures are time-barred, does that follow

21 through to the damages questions as well, the

22 questions on loss and causation?

23 Or are we to assume there that

24 no measures are time-barred?

25 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES: I

[Page 1287]

1 think, for loss and causation, certainly start by

2 assuming no measures are time-barred. But, if you

3 have additional submissions to make, to say if you

4 were to accept our time-bar, then this may reduce

5 the loss, if it does reduce the loss.

6 But you will tell us tomorrow

7 but I don't actually think it's that nuanced.

8 Okay.

9 Go ahead, Ms. Shelley.

10 MS. SHELLEY: Could we just

11 ask one clarifying question on Question Number 5.

12 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

13 Yes.

14 MS. SHELLEY: You had said

15 what are the parties' cases on the appreciation

16 value between the date of the first Award and

17 today.

18 And does "today" mean today

19 or --

20 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

21 February 2020. It will be the date of valuation.

22 MS. SHELLEY: Okay.

23 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES: I

24 don't think the date of valuation is in dispute;

25 right, in these proceedings.

[Page 1288]

1 MS. SHELLEY: We have used the

2 same valuation date as our friends, yes.

3 PRESIDING ARBITRATOR MILES:

4 Yes, good question. Date of valuation.

5 Okay, all right, we are really

6 looking forward to tomorrow. We hope you get some

7 sleep.

8 And we will see you bright

9 eyed and bushy tailed at 9:00 a.m. tomorrow

10 morning. So thank you all.

11 --- Whereupon matter adjourned at 12:05 p.m., to

12 resume Friday, February 9, 2024,

13 at 9:00 a.m.

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

[Page 1290]

A

a.m 1173:11

1177:3 1255:8

1255:9 1273:5

1273:6 1288:9

1288:13

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accept 1247:19

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access 1198:6

account 1230:12

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1282:17,21,25

1283:4,17,18

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1203:10

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addressed

1271:13 1274:6

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adjourned

1288:11

adjust 1228:3

admissibility

1276:18

admit 1200:8

advantage

1227:6

Affairs 1175:6

AFFIRMED

1176:3 1177:12

affixed 1209:18

agenda 1228:13

ago 1256:14

1263:24

agree 1187:22

1194:20 1195:7

1195:9 1196:15

1198:10 1199:4

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1227:20

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agreement

1198:2 1205:23

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Alexandra

1174:3 1175:3

alleged 1278:5,12

1278:13,17

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allocation

1214:16

allocations

1214:18

allow 1207:12

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1279:5

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1279:17

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1247:14

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1272:14,17

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Annex 1280:17

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answer 1194:12

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1222:25

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1181:15

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anticipate

1272:14

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Anyway 1202:11

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apologies

1189:23

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1177:24

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APPEARANC...

1174:1 1175:1

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1218:22

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1185:22 1278:9

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1180:18

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1185:7 1281:19

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1180:18 1181:8

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1269:25

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1190:12,13

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1191:9 1201:4

Aragón 1173:19

Arbitration

1173:2,9,10,18

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Arbitrator

1173:16 1177:4

1177:8 1182:2

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1230:23 1231:5

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1234:22

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1236:2,7,11,17

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1247:3,23

1248:7,11,14

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1267:24

1270:22 1272:8

1272:19 1273:7

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1276:1,5

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1281:7 1283:6

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1284:4,10,16

1285:18

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1287:12,20,23

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argument

1182:12

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Articles 1278:4

artificial 1212:24

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1284:21

asking 1200:15

1218:2,7

1221:8 1262:24

assertion 1197:6

assets 1189:11

assistance

1201:18

association

1225:11

assume 1188:23

1206:2 1216:21

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assuming

1270:14 1277:5

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assumptions

1266:20

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attached 1213:6

attest 1221:13

Attorney 1175:8

attributes 1184:7

average 1195:1

1200:1,7,12,15

1200:24

1212:21 1238:4

averages 1200:2

averaging

1199:23

Award 1231:13

1246:4 1256:13

1256:16,19

1281:16,22

1282:8,13

1283:13 1285:1

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B

B 1233:8,18,18

1233:22 1252:3

1252:7,16,17

1253:15,24,25

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back 1177:9

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1199:11,12

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1202:3 1209:9

1221:6 1226:25

1227:3 1228:13

1229:6 1237:9

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baffled 1258:12

Baines 1174:8

Bakelaar 1175:5

ballpark 1243:6

banker 1225:25

1226:5

banks 1206:21

1208:18

barred 1277:11

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base 1209:21

based 1191:8

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basically 1207:17

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basis 1196:17

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Bay 1173:10,25

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beautiful

1193:12

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beginning 1253:7

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1263:8,9,20,21

1264:5 1273:21

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1185:5 1188:2

1219:6 1222:17

1226:15 1227:9

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1249:19

belong 1195:17

belongs 1235:13

1236:3

bench 1269:11

benchmarks

1245:7

benefit 1197:19

1285:22

best 1273:25

1276:20 1279:5

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better 1256:5

1278:7,8

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Beverley 1173:17

beyond 1182:7

1202:25

big 1209:20,21

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billions 1253:19

bit 1185:20

1186:23

1220:22

1226:20

1257:23,24

1273:1 1275:10

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black 1183:9,10

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blind 1193:3,4

blocks 1231:12

1231:13 1232:7

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body 1274:6,22

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bolded 1204:10

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1235:12,16,17

1235:19,22,22

1236:1 1251:1

1251:1,9

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bottom 1209:23

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bottoms 1215:3

bound 1211:23

1214:4 1230:1

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bounds 1199:1

breach 1278:5,12

1279:17 1285:3

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break 1201:16

1203:1,16

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brief 1178:3,5

1204:22,24

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briefly 1196:23

briefs 1272:1

bright 1288:8

bring 1178:6

1195:24

1217:22

bringing 1207:6

1284:1

brings 1216:1

broad 1231:11

[Page 1298]

happens 1208:5
1208:5 1243:9
1243:22 1262:8
Hi 1255:25 immersed 1267:6 individual
1187:25 1188:3
1227:14
investment-ba...
1280:18 1281:2
happy 1220:18
1221:17
1269:24
1270:11,12
1271:10,13
high 1182:17
1244:1
impact 1229:18 industry 1226:13
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investor 1278:6
hard 1177:25
1187:20
1216:14
1227:13 1231:2
higher 1191:15
1211:14
important
1178:23
1183:15
1266:15
1269:17
inequitable
1285:7
investors
1186:25
1206:18
1208:24 1209:3
1215:1 1222:21
1229:5 1241:6
hats 1203:4
1219:1
highlight 1190:7
1192:13 1256:7
impossible
1207:4
inflated 1228:16
hautes 1216:9 highlighted
1178:11 1190:6
1193:5 1205:16
1209:12
1219:17
imprecise
1201:14 1224:7
inflation 1228:3
1228:11
1229:18
1230:13
involves 1269:14
head 1181:11
1201:10
highlights 1192:8
1258:6,8
inappropriate
1199:20
information
1180:19
1200:10
1204:15 1230:9
Israel 1174:4
hear 1194:10
1276:20
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highly 1222:10
1222:21
include 1191:3
1195:11
1204:11
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informed
1230:19
issue 1202:18
1215:19 1242:9
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1276:19 1277:8
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hip 1230:16 included 1184:8
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input 1268:24
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hearing 1178:15
1180:20
1184:21,22,25
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history 1226:12 includes 1251:25
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hearings 1269:5 hold 1196:23 including
1210:22
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issues 1220:23
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1277:10,22,23
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Heather 1175:2 Hon 1173:17 increase 1194:25
1199:25
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install 1244:8 item 1252:7
heavy 1209:21 hope 1279:24
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incurred 1278:6 integrity 1266:16 items 1201:23
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Held 1173:10 Hopefully 1177:9 independence
1215:17
intentional
1192:15
Helen 1173:20 hoping 1231:14 INDEX 1173:14
1176:1
interaction
1269:13

J

Hello 1256:1 horizon 1228:13 indexed 1228:16 interest 1191:2 Jérôme 1175:10
1176:3 1177:12
help 1196:3
1224:24,25
1225:1 1231:7
1231:15
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horrible 1271:4 indicate 1268:11 interested 1258:8
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helpful 1203:4
1257:21
1266:23
1267:19 1268:7
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hospital 1272:22 indicated
1201:12
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intermediate
1253:15
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helping 1265:10 hot 1269:11 indicates 1231:20 international
1216:17,18
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John 1173:17
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indicating
1198:22
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1182:19
Jos 1173:19
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1177:11
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1269:16
introduction
1199:6
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hugely 1202:25 investment
1241:16,18
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hundred 1213:15

I

judicata 1276:21
1282:3 1283:13
idea 1192:25
1193:9 1255:5
identified
1195:11
1231:12
1234:24
1236:21
identify 1188:13

[Page 1299]

Julie 1174:3 1274:2 1275:2
1280:7 1284:19
1247:13,15
1252:3 1253:8
1253:10
1264:14
1194:17
1199:11 1227:1
1227:21,22
1229:1 1247:25
1249:16 1260:2
1268:2
logic 1280:3,5,6
jump 1237:23
1250:10
1281:10
knowledge
1278:5,5,11,13
1278:17
1279:17,18
late-stage
1214:24
level 1188:3
1233:22
1253:15
long 1177:9
1271:6
jumped 1273:11 known 1208:2 law 1175:6
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licence 1207:6 longer 1195:20
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jumps 1238:1 limit 1254:6 look 1177:19
1178:1 1188:12
1193:8,10
1195:3 1197:8
1203:10
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1240:25
1252:24
1253:22 1256:5
1256:15 1257:9
1257:9 1258:16
1260:2 1268:21
1281:1
June 1282:7

L

lawyers 1207:18 limitation 1278:3
1278:18
1279:19
jurisdictional
1276:17
label 1215:15
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layout 1244:5 limited 1275:3
jurisdictions
1214:6
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lays 1209:22 line 1187:4
1210:23
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1271:10 1280:5
1280:6
Justice 1200:17 labour 1228:20 lead 1228:19 linear 1265:12 looking 1181:10
1195:2 1203:9
1203:13
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1257:12
1270:12
1281:11 1288:6

K

lack 1242:15
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leading 1257:22 lines 1260:15
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Kayla 1175:4 laid 1198:18,19 leases 1214:18 Lisa 1173:22
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KC 1173:16 lake 1213:6 leave 1269:16 list 1189:21
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Lamberti
1173:22
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lapses 1207:8 left 1208:1
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Killeavy 1174:9 large 1183:14
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kind 1258:25 largely 1183:7
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Knecht 1175:14 late 1178:20
1179:24 1180:5
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1198:12
1199:17 1202:7
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1233:9 1234:10
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1235:5,6,9,13
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legally 1223:13 lots 1186:17,24
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know 1181:23,23
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1223:25 1225:4
1225:25
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1266:20 1267:1
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legitimacy
1266:17
LLC 1173:4 loud 1271:11
LEM 1189:9
1190:22
LLP 1174:5 low 1212:12
lender 1206:23 loaded 1226:21 Lowenstein
lender's 1208:20 locked 1182:3,5,6
lenders 1208:24
1208:25
1222:20
lesser 1200:10
let's 1185:20,21

[Page 1300]

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1280:20,21
1282:10
1288:11
1285:13
1287:18
Michael 1174:9
1175:12
1265:9,20
1266:4,9
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1270:22 1272:8
1272:19 1273:7
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meaning 1197:18
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mid 1229:4
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Luis 1173:19
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McLachlin
1173:17 1178:2
1181:25 1182:4
1196:7 1200:14
1200:17 1204:1
1204:5 1205:5
1205:12 1226:4
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middle 1252:11
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lunch 1267:25 meant 1225:4 Milburn 1174:11
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Lyle 1175:12 measures 1279:8
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milestone
1240:14
1252:11
1253:13

M

McMullen
1175:4
megawatt
1190:11,16,20
1190:24 1191:7
1191:22,25
1192:3 1200:1
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1231:22 1234:4
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M5H 1173:25 mean 1178:18
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1254:17
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1280:5 1285:11
megawatts
1191:16,17
1212:14,15
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1190:15,19,24
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Madam 1201:16
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1204:23
magnitude
1227:12
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1179:4,5
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1241:2
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Mars 1174:7
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1189:18
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1202:9,10
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1195:12,14
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mathematically
1196:12,12
mathematics
1199:22
maths 1203:7
matter 1183:2
1187:18
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[Page 1302]

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[Page 1303]

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[Page 1304]

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[Page 1305]

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1253:9
10:29 1255:8
working 1196:3
1243:14 1245:1
yellow 1192:7,23
1192:25 1193:6
0.06 1199:25 10:46 1255:9
worried 1242:8
1242:10
yesterday
1179:21
1180:19
1183:19
1190:23
1191:14
1193:14
1205:10 1222:4
1231:17 1268:5
1282:6
0.1 1237:14
1238:6,12,14
1238:17,23
1239:15
1246:11
1249:25 1250:4
1250:6,13,18
1250:19 1251:5
1252:20 1253:7
1253:7 1260:7
1260:12 1264:5
1264:17
100 1182:15,25
1187:11 1213:9
worth 1214:2,3
1253:18
1262:13 1265:7
1043 1239:4
worthwhile
1267:10
11:06 1273:5
wouldn't 1223:8
1230:6 1261:11
0.10 1190:15
1201:3
11:42 1273:6
wrap 1274:8,9
1275:10,11
0.15 1202:25 1116 1278:4,10
1279:2
writing 1234:13 yesterday's 0.2 1237:20
1238:19,24
1250:7,19
1251:1 1261:9
1261:11
1117 1278:4,10
1279:2
written 1265:23 0.23 1191:6 1177 1176:3,4
0.27 1190:19 12 1240:20
0.30 1190:11 12:05 1288:11
0.32 1190:24 1255 1176:5
0.4 1254:7
1262:13
14B 1280:17,20
0.5 1191:21
1252:20
1253:13 1254:7
15 1202:5
1228:11 1268:6
1273:1 1274:9
1274:9,21,21
1275:12,14,14
1275:15,15
15-minute
1273:22 1274:3

[Page 1311]

1274:8,18 24 1240:21
1241:1
1252:7 1253:14
1253:25
1256:15
1258:10
1237:10
1247:17 1251:3
184 1218:1 2464 1178:6 474(a) 1257:7

8

187 1221:6 25 1225:21
1240:21
1241:14,20
1242:8
474(b) 1257:9,16
1259:17,20
8 1173:11 1177:2
1188:7 1189:22

2

26 1197:10
1213:14
474(c) 1259:13
1259:14
80 1182:18
2 1197:20 1204:4
1234:7 1237:8
1237:10
1239:24 1240:1
1246:13,17,20
1247:18 1249:6
1250:4 1251:22
1252:4,17
1254:10,12
1260:17,17,19
1260:20,22
1261:1,8,18,21
277 1213:11 474A 1257:7 834 1191:16
27th 1282:8 478 1236:18,22
1237:4 1238:15
1246:3,6,8
1247:1,16
1249:11
1252:24 1253:1
1253:3 1258:9
1258:12
1259:25
1261:25
1262:25 1263:2
1264:9
860 1191:16
28 1188:9

9

2R2 1173:25 9 1270:13
1288:12

3

9:00 1288:9,13
3 1197:23
1230:24
1234:10
1239:24 1242:8
1246:5 1252:7
1286:18
9:01 1173:11
1177:3
20 1226:12 3.5ish 1262:16 90 1182:18
1242:25
2008 1227:1,3
1228:8
333 1173:10 479 1252:19 900 1173:10
2015 1184:25
1186:12
1203:12,15
1282:7

4

5

900-333 1173:25
4 1173:12
1194:17 1198:6
1234:10
1237:24 1242:8
1250:9 1251:5
1251:8,13
1252:4,9,17
1253:16,18,22
1254:6,12,18
1259:23
1261:25 1262:3
1262:5,18
1263:8,9
1265:1,2,7,13
5 1187:9,12
1194:13 1202:7
1234:15
1239:21
1248:24 1263:8
1263:10
1287:11
95 1182:19
1187:9,10,11
2016 1282:9 50 1191:9
2017 1205:25
1279:14
57 1194:14
2020 1203:12,15
1227:2 1228:8
1228:8 1287:21
58 1190:3,4
2021-26 1173:1

6

2022 1188:8
1197:9 1229:4
1223:11
60 1182:18
2023 1213:11
1228:24 1229:3
66 1210:20
2024 1173:11,24
1177:2 1228:25
1288:12
4.5 1248:9,22,24
1263:3,5,9

7

20s 1213:14 47 1198:8 7 1189:23
1203:24 1204:3
1217:23 1231:6
1231:14 1232:2
1233:10,11
22 1229:25
1240:20
474 1230:25
1231:16
1236:21 1237:3
1238:2 1251:19
22nd 1210:19
1279:14
23 1210:15
1213:13
1229:25